Quote:
Originally Posted by tmc
I don't put much stock in polls, but nonetheless the Newsweek poll is of marginal value as it is a national poll, and not a state-by-state breakdown. Building up big margins of voters within a state does not do a candidate any favors if he is too close to call, or behind, in other states. I am not saying this is the case, the Newsweek poll does not illuminate here. By the way, many polls show McCain still up in Florida.
If you look at the methodology employed in the Newsweek poll it appears that self-identified Republicans are underrepresented by a few points. The number of white, non-Hispanics is about 8 points lower, and the number of college-educated people is about 15 points lower, than the election of 2004 results showed (according to Census Bureau data). The age data is skewed towards the youngest group of 18-39 year-olds, to the detriment of the over 65's. All-in-all, I don't see much validity in the Newsweek poll, and subsequent polls showing the race on a national level to be much closer, with Obama enjoying a 2 to 5 percent national lead, seem to bear out my point.
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I will bet the farm that if Newsweek had McBush up 15% points,you would have posted something completely different.
Anyhow,According to your numbers,smart people are going for Obama,cool.
