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Old 07-12-2005   #1 (permalink)
very sparkly
 
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Hurricane Emily

I just read on cnn that there is another storm that is supposed to pick up speed around next tuesday, just in time for my arrival to mexico.

has there been a difference in weather as the last 2 huricanes passed through? or has the weather not been effected?

wahoooo 7 more days!!! eeek cant wait!
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Old 07-12-2005   #2 (permalink)
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It's hard to say what, if any, effect Emily will have. Dennis caused rain last Friday(all day)and REALLY high tides. BIG waves(surfable), they were even curling over B4 they broke. Water 3-4 rows back at Mamita's(pics in MM of this). It depends on the path it takes, the strength, etc.........Hope you have a fun trip!!
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Old 07-12-2005   #3 (permalink)
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emily

we are leaving thurday 14 for playa del carmen any local info as to what the weather will be like thanks in advance !
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Old 07-12-2005   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hillbilly john
we are leaving thurday 14 for playa del carmen any local info as to what the weather will be like thanks in advance !
As I am sure you know, it's hard to say what the weather will be like in 2 days, or even 2 hours, for that matter. So many factors, but one thing I can tell you is it WILL be hot, humid, and the mosquito's have been busy! Have fun!
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Old 07-12-2005   #5 (permalink)
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not to be a killjoy

but it looks like they are lining up off the coast of africa.
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Old 07-12-2005   #6 (permalink)
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Latest discussion from NOAA looks pretty bad.

OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY... WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS...

That means Type 2-3 hurricane within 48-72 hrs.

But the most worrisome is the next sentence:

THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Track is a beeline straight for the Yucatan with no northward turn forecast.

That being said, anything can happen because this is still way too early. From the tracking history, Emily looks a lot like Isidore which did finally turn North and missed our favorite piece of paradise.

What I mean with this thread is that Emily is to be watched very very closely.

That 2005 hurricane season is really weird...one for the history books . Normally, Atlantic tropical storms in July fizzle out and die before reaching the Windward Island because the water is not warm enough. However, this year's storms have already taught us to throw the history books out the window.
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Old 07-12-2005   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Entilzha
Latest discussion from NOAA looks pretty bad.

OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY... WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS...

That means Type 2-3 hurricane within 48-72 hrs.

But the most worrisome is the next sentence:

THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Track is a beeline straight for the Yucatan with no northward turn forecast.

That being said, anything can happen because this is still way too early. From the tracking history, Emily looks a lot like Isidore which did finally turn North and missed our favorite piece of paradise.

What I mean with this thread is that Emily is to be watched very very closely.

That 2005 hurricane season is really weird...one for the history books . Normally, Atlantic tropical storms in July fizzle out and die before reaching the Windward Island because the water is not warm enough. However, this year's storms have already taught us to throw the history books out the window.

global warming has to have something to do with all this! dont you agree?
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Old 07-12-2005   #8 (permalink)
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Playa.Info provides up-to-date info on tropical storms via direct feeds from the NOAA... this info is located in the "read more" section of the site (see tab top of page) under the title "tropical storm forecasts" that appears in the menu on the left side of that page. Or you can just... click here.
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Old 07-12-2005   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by taco
global warming has to have something to do with all this! dont you agree?
I saw a hurricane expert this weekend say global warming has nothing to do with the increase in storms.He said this happens every 30 years or so and lasts 10-25 years.I think he was on Fox news.Just saw the lastest track for Emily,they bring it near the Yucatan as a cat 3.Hope you guys down in Playa will be safe.I am feeling better about canceling my trip to Playa,I believe I made the right choice.

Last edited by playabums; 07-12-2005 at 11:30 AM..
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Old 07-12-2005   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by playabums
I saw a hurricane expert this weekend say global warming has nothing to do with the increase in storms.He said this happens every 30 years or so and lasts 10-25 years.I think he was on Fox news.Just saw the lastest track for Emily,they bring it near the Yuctan as a cat 3.Hope you guys down in Playa will be safe.I am feeling better about canceling my trip to Playa,I believe I made the right choice.
hmmm interesting...
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Old 07-12-2005   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by taco
hmmm interesting...
well i just found this on the geophysical fluid dynamics labratory website

The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the <CR>future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.
An implication of these studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.
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Old 07-12-2005   #12 (permalink)
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geophysical fluid dynamics labratory website.......Wow never been to that one.lol
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Old 07-12-2005   #13 (permalink)
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If you look at the hurricane history of the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, you'll find it to be not much different than what is going on now. It is cyclical, the liberal leaning scientists notwithstanding. The biggest problem is that people got used to the lack of storms and started building all over the beaches in the gulf and Caribbean area, so now the devastation looks and is worse in terms of human life and possessions. Of course, Galveston and New Orleans never seem to learn their lessons

In reference to Isodoro, it may not have bothered PDC, but it wreaked tons of havoc on the northern shore of the peninsula, hitting Merida twice before it headed out to sea and on to Louisiana. I was part of some of that clean up effort.
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Old 07-12-2005   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAH
If you look at the hurricane history of the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, you'll find it to be not much different than what is going on now. It is cyclical, the liberal leaning scientists notwithstanding. The biggest problem is that people got used to the lack of storms and started building all over the beaches in the gulf and Caribbean area, so now the devastation looks and is worse in terms of human life and possessions. Of course, Galveston and New Orleans never seem to learn their lessons

In reference to Isodoro, it may not have bothered PDC, but it wreaked tons of havoc on the northern shore of the peninsula, hitting Merida twice before it headed out to sea and on to Louisiana. I was part of some of that clean up effort.
Of course everytime a hurricane turns means that somebody else is going to get screwed.

I agree that the increased activity is most probably the result of cyclical paterns and we are on the upswing. I just finished going through a thesis on climatology and it is amazing how wildly our climate can swing...we even got a small "ice-age" between 1300 and 1800. The effect of global warming will only be identified for certain after a long enough time to eliminate those variations as probable cause. Of course by that time it will be way too late to do anything about it.
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Old 07-12-2005   #15 (permalink)
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We were in Akumal during Isidore. There were 7 days of rain in a row, and some damage, like trees and highway signs down. We were glad we didn't cancel our trip, had fun anyway!
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