Election 2006

[JEZ]

Originally Posted by roni

From time.com

Iraq, meanwhile, is continuing to be a problem for the Republicans. Only 38% of respondents in the TIME poll now support President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, down from 42% three months ago. A similar number believe that the new Iraqi government will succeed in forming a stable democracy, while 59% believe this is unlikely. Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war, while 54% believe he "deliberately misled" Americans in making his case for war — a figure that has increased by 6 points over the past year. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to TIME's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August.

This is interesting....

[Icon oclast]

If the dems can't pick up one house of congress after arguably the worst couple of years in rethug history, what is the next step for the dem party and what will your reaction be? I am curious because they can't seem to capitalize on the mistakes and transgressions of their opponents.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by Icon oclast

If the dems can't pick up one house of congress after arguably the worst couple of years in rethug history, what is the next step for the dem party and what will your reaction be? I am curious because they can't seem to capitalize on the mistakes and transgressions of their opponents.

If they can't pick up one house of congress, you can expect an absolute bloodbath between Howard Dean's camp in the DNC, which has been stressing "grass roots" rebuilding of the Democratic structure in the 50 states; and "practicalists" like Emanuel, Chuck Shumer and the like, who concentrate on "winnable" states only, ignoring entire blocks of the country. I would like to see Dean win that battle, as I think his strategy is the smart, right one to give the Democratic Party a real future. If it doesn't pay off for this election, it certainly will for 2008.

To get the White House, the Democratic Party would be smart to go back to the "cult of personality" that did them well with getting Bill Clinton elected. (Actually, Clinton got himself elected)
In which event, Barack Obama would be the one I would hitch my star to. Anyone else has gives off the "been there, done that" vibe -- including Lady Hillary.
I would be excited for once.

[sctx]

Originally Posted by MWC

In which event, Barack Obama would be the one I would hitch my star to. Anyone else has gives off the "been there, done that" vibe -- including Lady Hillary.
.

if Obama distances himself from Sharpton and Rangel, he'll get my vote

[roni]

This morning's New York Times online cites both Repub and Dem strategists as agreeing that 5 Repub seats considered safe a couple of weeks ago are now in serious contentmion, making the total number of "seats in play" at about 45. Read the whole article to get a more optimistic view by Ken Mehlman.

Democrats need to capture 15 House seats to take control of Congress; until the last week or two, about 40 Republican seats had been judged in play, of which 20 had been considered highly competitive. But analysts said at least five more Republican seats, and as many as eight, that had once been considered relative long shots for Democrats had now swung firmly into play.

Also sounds like PdS got the same talking points as the radio talk show hosts:

Talk radio hosts, working off a list of talking points distributed by Republican Party officials, recounted how two decades ago, House Democrats stood behind Representative Gerry E. Studds, Democrat of Massachusetts, after he engaged in sex with a male page.

[Tony&Cheri]

Originally Posted by TexasUSA

Conservatives and right leaning Moderates hold the House and Senate, that is really what it comes down to. Our great country has always leaned to the right, it waned some since the 60's and into the late 80's but there has been a slow and gradual shift back. Who really cares what political tag (Republican, Democrat, Independent) you have/are. You heard it here first (probably not)!

And heard it wrong. The pendulm swings and that's a good thing. In my lifetime the two parties each have five elected Presidents:

Truman, moderate Democrat.
Eisenhower, moderate Republican
Kennedy, liberal Democrat
Johnson, liberal Democrat
Nixon, conservative Republican
Carter, moderate Democrat
Reagen, conservative Republican
Bush, conservative Republican
Clinton, liberal Democrat
Bush, neo-conservative Republican

No party, no ideology lasts long for the American people. That's the beauty of our electoral system. This country isn't left or right except for those at the extrmes of ideology. The vast majority of voters are moderates who will consider a good man/woman or idea from either party if they think it works for the country.

- Tony

[PlayadelSoul]

In history, there have been 2 Presidents who were really slammed, while they were in office, due to their prosecution of a war. Lincoln and Truman. Both ended up being recognized as great leaders, doing what was necessary at the time, despite their low approval ratings. I think the same will hold true for GW. Only time tells.

No matter who is in charge, the country always survives and prospers. If it is a Democrat, ni modo.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by Tony&Cheri

No party, no ideology lasts long for the American people. That's the beauty of our electoral system. This country isn't left or right except for those at the extrmes of ideology. The vast majority of voters are moderates who will consider a good man/woman or idea from either party if they think it works for the country.

- Tony

Or else they're schizos who can't make up their freaking minds!

[MikeW]

Originally Posted by Tony&Cheri

Truman, moderate Democrat.
Eisenhower, moderate Republican
Kennedy, liberal Democrat
Johnson, liberal Democrat
Nixon, conservative Republican
Carter, moderate Democrat
Reagen, conservative Republican
Bush, conservative Republican
Clinton, liberal Democrat
Bush, neo-conservative Republican
- Tony

I didn't think he was too conservative. He did a lot controversial non-conservative things while in office. Took us off the gold standard. Detente. Went to China. Arms negotiations. I rememeber something about trying to freeze the price of something (I was kinda young). His original idea in the war on drugs was for counseling and helping the addicts, but it didn't play well to the public so he flipped and started the other war on drugs.

On the other hand, he was a tiny bit whacked . . .

[Jacko]

Originally Posted by Tony&Cheri

And heard it wrong. The pendulm swings and that's a good thing. In my lifetime the two parties each have five elected Presidents:

Truman, moderate Democrat.
Eisenhower, moderate Republican
Kennedy, liberal Democrat
Johnson, liberal Democrat
Nixon, conservative Republican
Carter, moderate Democrat
Reagen, conservative Republican
Bush, conservative Republican
Clinton, liberal Democrat
Bush, neo-conservative Republican

No party, no ideology lasts long for the American people. That's the beauty of our electoral system. This country isn't left or right except for those at the extrmes of ideology. The vast majority of voters are moderates who will consider a good man/woman or idea from either party if they think it works for the country.

- Tony

Interesting...why is Clinton seen as a "liberal" Democrat?

I thought all of his work with the DLC was to move the party to a more moderate stance...you know, the old "welfare as we know it is dead", fiscal responsibility, NAFTA, balanced budget etc. approach.

[sctx]

Originally Posted by Jacko

Interesting...why is Clinton seen as a "liberal" Democrat?

.

and JFK?

[Jacko]

Originally Posted by MikeW

I didn't think he was too conservative. He did a lot controversial non-conservative things while in office. Took us off the gold standard. Detente. Went to China. Arms negotiations. I rememeber something about trying to freeze the price of something (I was kinda young). His original idea in the war on drugs was for counseling and helping the addicts, but it didn't play well to the public so he flipped and started the other war on drugs.

On the other hand, he was a tiny bit whacked . . .

He was "whacked" pretty good indeed, but beyond those personal paranoia things, he was probably pretty smart, if not charismatic or empathetic at all.

Most of the foreign policy things you talk about were influenced greatly by Kissinger I believe.

Getting off Bretton-Woods and the gold standard was likely forced by the costs of the Vietnam war and the Johnson's Great Society programs causing a new budget and trade deficit, inflation and the devaluation of the dollar internationally. Wouldn't these decisions to counteract the "liberal programs" be seen as a conservative approach?

Nixon did do wage-price freezes to try to offset this problem as well.

We should pay heed in modern times......

[roni]

From abcnews.com

Foley put new cracks in the notion of the GOP as a vessel of family virtue. "It doesn't make you mad so much as it sickens you," said Northland's pastor, Joel C. Hunter. Among evangelicals, moral revulsion will yield electoral consequences: fewer and less eager volunteers, a lower turnout, especially if the hunkered-down House leadership is found to be covering up. "The ones who are kind of close to the margins anyhow are more likely just to say, 'I don't even want to go there'," he said. "And of course they're the ones who could make the difference."

So the polls show. A Pew Foundation survey found an 8-percentage-point drop in Republican preference among "frequent churchgoers."

[TimHorton]

Maybe this is the type of candidate that the U.S. needs for their election campaign.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...rnational/home

[roni]

Quite a few of us enjoy (and/or complain about) the nature of media coverage of election campaigns.

Let me refer you to the The Cook Political Report

This from their website:

What is the Cook Political Report?

Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. In 2004, we moved to an online-based publication.

Among the subscribers to The Cook Political Report are lobbyists, trade associations, corporations, labor unions, Members of Congress, political action committees and interest groups across the political spectrum. All have come to rely upon The Cook Political Report for objective information and analysis about who is running in what races, what the most important dynamics are in the races, who's ahead and what factors to look for as the campaigns progress.

The below is a recent article available on their website

Charlie Cook's National Overview
October 13, 2006

Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP

Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.

That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.

Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.

On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.

For Republicans, it is a time to defend every seat, no matter how secure those seats appear. If things don't change, GOP incumbents, who never even contemplated having a difficult race, may well lose this year. And if I were a Republican, I'd start praying that something happens to take the spotlight away from Iraq and scandals, because this current issue mix is lethal.

In the Senate, there were already seven GOP seats that were virtually tied, and in three or four of those cases, politically dead. Thus, we have not seen as much movement as we've seen in the House. Readers should remember the Cook Political Report's long respected policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in a worse category than Toss Up. For more on the state of play in the Senate races, see Editor Jennifer Duffy's Senate Overview in today's update.

Can things change? Sure. The North Korean nuclear (or non-nuclear, as the case may be) tests should serve as a reminder that this election, like any other, can turn on a dime. But for Republicans, it must turn if they have any hope of salvaging this election.