USA Presidential Politics - 2008

[roni]

To return some of the discussants to reality about the relative levels of surprise in Iowa and New Hampshire

New Hampshire - from this morning's Washington Post:

It was not supposed to be this way. A Gallup poll released on the eve of the election showed her trailing Barack Obama, the buoyant winner of the Iowa caucuses, by 13 points. Reporters wondered if the margin would be even higher, and Democratic operatives began to hatch ways to nudge her gently out of the race.

Iowa Poll: Jan 2:

Barack Obama 34%
John Edwards 33%
Hillary Clinton 32%

Which state was more surprising?

[roni]

A good post election column detailing the level at which the results were a surprise:

She Lives

[MWC]

Originally Posted by roni

A good post election column detailing the level at which the results were a surprise:

She Lives

The headline made me laugh!
Talk about a back-handed compliment.

[melliedee]

Originally Posted by roni

I think we will see less of Bill, though I think we'll see plenty of him in South Carolina.

It matters when a popular, former President says something. That was part of the story yesterday. Save him for the cases where the bases are loaded and there are two outs and you're 3 runs behind in extra innings. That is how I view what President Clinton did in New Hampshire - and I do not think it was a off the chart negative attack - it was in large part self-defense

That's just it. It was self-defense, but she didn't send a "surrogate" or an "operative," she sent her husband. Makes the whole thing look personal, when it should be about examining the two candidate's records. That may have been the goal, but it was not the public's perception of Bill's speech, imo.

[roni]

Originally Posted by MWC

The headline made me laugh!
Talk about a back-handed compliment.

How did you like the rest of the column?

[roni]

Here is a good column on the media coverage, including illustrative quotes from various media outlets and personalities

Media Coverage of New Hampshire - column by Howard Kurtz

[roni]

Originally Posted by melliedee

That's just it. It was self-defense, but she didn't send a "surrogate" or an "operative," she sent her husband. Makes the whole thing look personal, when it should be about examining the two candidate's records. That may have been the goal, but it was not the public's perception of Bill's speech, imo.

I meant self-defense mostly by Bill Clinton against negative attacks that the Obama campaign has been peddling about him.

I am afraid that Obama took some of the advice that Karl Rove gave him in that open letter.

[Jacko]

Originally Posted by roni

To return some of the discussants to reality about the relative levels of surprise in Iowa and New Hampshire

New Hampshire - from this morning's Washington Post:

It was not supposed to be this way. A Gallup poll released on the eve of the election showed her trailing Barack Obama, the buoyant winner of the Iowa caucuses, by 13 points. Reporters wondered if the margin would be even higher, and Democratic operatives began to hatch ways to nudge her gently out of the race.

Iowa Poll: Jan 2:

Barack Obama 34%
John Edwards 33%
Hillary Clinton 32%

Which state was more surprising?

I am surprised that you continue on this tack.....Both elections were very surprising to both of the candidates..with the surprise being more pleasant for one candidate than the other in BOTH cases.....
(as an interested discussant, I don't accept your version of reality.)

[melliedee]

Originally Posted by roni

I meant self-defense mostly by Bill Clinton against negative attacks that the Obama campaign has been peddling about him.

I am afraid that Obama took some of the advice that Karl Rove gave him in that open letter.

You're welcome to your interpretation. I thought Bill came off cranky and overly protective. That kind of defense will hurt the Clinton campaign. When he makes pointed statements about who is and who is not running a negative campaign, I'm pretty sure he's talking about his wife, not reacting to an attack on his own person from Obama.

[diogeron]

Well, congrats to Hillary on the "upset." This is exactly what I was worried about when the polls started showing Obama up double digits. Absent those polls, his strong second place finish last night would have been a "win." On to Nevada and SC and victory there, I hope.

If there are any Ron Paul fans out there, I strongly suggest they take a look a this piece in The New Republic and then maybe take another look at Ron Paul.


> Angry White Man

Originally Posted by Jacko

I am surprised that you continue on this tack.....Both elections were very surprising to both of the candidates..with the surprise being more pleasant for one candidate than the other in BOTH cases.....
(as an interested discussant, I don't accept your version of reality.)

[MWC]

Originally Posted by roni

How did you like the rest of the column?

It was fine, but I had already heard the beginnings of what he wrote about on msnbc last night.

Reading between the lines, I think the most important "takeaway" for the Hillary camp is that the mass media pundits were over-eager to stick a fork in her candidacy. A lot of players in the chattering classes seem to viscerally hate the Clintons: whether it's peer jealousy or they-know-something-the-public-doesn't-know ... I don't know.

[roni]

Originally Posted by Jacko

I don't accept your version of reality.)

It is not my version of reality Jack, and I do not accept your attempt to revise Reality.

Still smarting from Al Gore not entering the race, eh? I am sorry.

[roni]

Originally Posted by MWC

It was fine, but I had already heard the beginnings of what he wrote about on msnbc last night.

When Chris Mathews started yelling at Dee Myers the other, I vowed never to watch that station again.

What ever happened to good manners?

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by roni

It is not my version of reality Jack, and I do not accept your attempt to revise Reality.

Well file me with Jacko, then.* The whole country reacted to the effect that Obama, not Clinton (after months of being 20 points out ahead of Obama) winning Iowa was a big surprise, and it was that (not polls) which set up the idea that there could be such a comeback ("She's alive!") for Clinton in NH. You don't think so, well, OK...

Steve

*I mean if you haven't already.

[sctx]

damn, you Dems are gettin kinda rough