USA Presidential Politics - 2008

[roni]

Originally Posted by MWC

I would think the super delegates could wield a bit of clout out on the floor, no?

Not beyond their own votes. The delegates decided in caucuses and primaries usually do not stray from the caucus/election results through which they were selected.

It was Dean who said that if they reached the convention without a winner, he would have to sit down with the campaigns and work out an arrangement, so I think it is fair to say he has back-room deal fantasies in mind.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by roni

Not beyond their own votes. The delegates decided in caucuses and primaries usually do not stray from the caucus/election results through which they were selected.

It was Dean who said that if they reached the convention without a winner, he would have to sit down with the campaigns and work out an arrangement, so I think it is fair to say he has back-room deal fantasies in mind.

I agree with you, that I would not want a deal reached ahead of time. I think the DNC HAS to give the floor delegates a shot, at least once, before they take the reins in that way.

[roni]

Originally Posted by MWC

I agree with you, that I would not want a deal reached ahead of time. I think the DNC HAS to give the floor delegates a shot, at least once, before they take the reins in that way.

As long as you include all the delegates in that statement and don't play the Obama campaign game of two classes of delegates, I agree with you.

The DNC may have significant difficulty taking the reins away from the Convention if they wait, though. Their action would be most effective either before the convention, or after a series of convention votes that did not yield a winner.

[ryberg]

Pity the candidate who has to make sense out of all that conflicting advice, though!

Go negative! Wait, maybe not. Wait, definitely not...

Focus on the issues! No, that's not it -- focus on your personal side!

Tough!

That said, I side with those who stress her showing her personal side more. She's not getting to enough people past the CW stereotype whatever on her, while he is getting to enough people past the CW stereotype whatever on him. I don't think she needs his eloquence or rhetorical skills or youth or newness as much as she needs warmth, more human contact and connection.

But what do I know, just my impression. I just don't know how helpful that advice is to her, as it seems so self-contradictory in many ways...

Steve

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by MWC

I agree with you, that I would not want a deal reached ahead of time. I think the DNC HAS to give the floor delegates a shot, at least once, before they take the reins in that way.

The problem is that the superdelegates DO wield power on the floor in the form of votes, of course. So Roni says it's playing a game, but leaving the decision to the floor is de facto acceptance of the validity of superdelegates overturning the popular vote. it's making the decision already, not leaving it to the floor in some more democratic way. It is impossible, in that light, to leave the decision to the floor on this matter.

Steve

[roni]

Originally Posted by ryberg

The problem is that the superdelegates DO wield power on the floor in the form of votes, of course. So Roni says it's playing a game, but leaving the decision to the floor is de facto acceptance of the validity of superdelegates overturning the popular vote. it's making the decision already, not leaving it to the floor in some more democratic way. It is impossible, in that light, to leave the decision to the floor on this matter.

Steve

There is no question as to the validity or legality of all the delegates.

Advocate for a back room deal if you want to, but at least be up-front about the fact that you are advocating that.

Thanks in advance

Ron

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by roni

There is no question as to the validity or legality of all the delegates.

Advocate for a back room deal if you want to, but at least be up-front about the fact that you are advocating that.

Thanks in advance

Ron

Well you're wrong.

What you're saying is, let's give superdelegates a vote and then let them vote on whether they should have a vote or not. That's backwards, you see. [Edit: Or you may instead be saying that there was never actually any sanction on FL or MI, if that instead is the point you're referring to, there. Not sure...]

On the other hand, I would like to see a vote by the pledged delegates on the floor as to whether superdelegates make sense and thus the idea of overriding the popular vote makes sense. It would be a good quick test of the extent to which the Democratic Party wants to be a democratic party.

Steve

[ryberg]

You know, this really better get resolved before the convention or the whole convention is going to Chicago on us, if you get my meaning.

At least with respect to FL & MI, all of this overlooks the most obvious solution those states can go with right now, while there's still lots of time to do it, namely a real, official, sanctioned election for their voters. The party has already told them they can, so if they're really so concerned about those voters, one would think they would take some action. Here is just one article that points that out.

Steve

[ryberg]

Look, put it this way:

• being opposed to this possible reinstatement of MI & FL after they were very clearly and publicly told that their delegates would not count as a punishment for not following party rules

  = being opposed to back-room dealing

• being opposed to this body of insider superdelegates that favor one candidate over the other and have the power to overrule the choice of the party members in the campaign system

  = being opposed to back-room dealing

You evidently do not see things that way, but for what it's worth, that's how I see things and it may at least help my comments here make more sense.

And again I may be wrong, but I think you'd find that an awful lot of people would agree with those views, as they certainly appear to be the most consistent with a more transparent and democratic approach to this whole process.

Hope that helps.

Steve

[horizon200]

Originally Posted by roni

Okay, I get it, I think

DNC rules on MI and FL - loved by Obama fanboys and girls

DNC rules on delegates - detested by Obama fanboys and girls

thanks for explaining so clearly.

Nope...never claimed to be an Obama Fanboy...just pointing out what Steve hears me saying (first Bolded statement below)

Originally Posted by ryberg

Ah, your answer posted while I was pondering, there.

I think I see the distinction you're trying to make, now, but I also think you may be splitting hairs the public is not going to split. Whether made on the convention floor or beforehand, a reversal that overrides the popular decision by suddenly saying (as Horizon put it), Whoops, sorry -- we were just kidding on MI & FL all along and now they count again! is going to look like cheating, whether it's made in a back room filled with smoke or on a convention floor filled with smoke. And I submit that the same goes for the possibility of superdelegates overturning the popular vote. Either way, people will look and say, Hey, WTF?!? The machinery and the powers that be in this party just overturned what the people went for in favor of the establishment candidate!

I could be wrong, of course, but FWIW, I think you'd find a resounding outcry no matter where such moves were made...

Steve

The second bolded statement...somehow I see it being blamed on Bush!

[roni]

Originally Posted by ryberg

Well you're wrong.

What you're saying is, let's give superdelegates a vote and then let them vote on whether they should have a vote or not. That's backwards, you see. [Edit: Or you may instead be saying that there was never actually any sanction on FL or MI, if that instead is the point you're referring to, there. Not sure...]

On the other hand, I would like to see a vote by the pledged delegates on the floor as to whether superdelegates make sense and thus the idea of overriding the popular vote makes sense. It would be a good quick test of the extent to which the Democratic Party wants to be a democratic party.

Steve

All the delegates get to vote on any resolution brought to the floor.

So, what you say you would like will not happen. All delegates are equal. It would be a test only of whether the fans of one candidate (Obama) should be able to bully delegates. That is all the test it would be.

[melliedee]

My exciting weekend in politics…

SATURDAY: My first canvassing event! On campus, signing up kids for absentee ballots (makes a lot of sense considering the Ohio primary is smack in the middle of spring break and many college age voters are not present in their original districts). We got a few takers and new volunteers. Many people walked by grumbling “I’m a Republican,” and we’re told not to engage anyone and simply say “Have a nice day.” Funny thing too: it was an open house day so many parents were on campus with their high school kids. One father put a protective arm around his son and said “We’re voting for Ron Paul.” Have a nice day!

The Ohio coordinator was straight out of an Aaron Sorkin casting call: earnest, super smart, not a day over 22. My friends from U of M came down and the three of us in our mid 30’s were easily the oldest volunteers.

SUNDAY: Bill Clinton’s in Toledo! I’m so sorry I missed it, but my Dad went. I was over my folks and he came back from the rally saying: “Mel, if you had been there you’d be changing your vote.” This, I think, is testament to the power of Bill stumping when he’s on positive message. I’m hoping they replay it on local news. Dad says he told a great story about Hillary’s support of post 9/11 firefighter’s health. He has fond memories of seeing Bill in the 90’s at the Jeep plant. Also, my Mom’s union came out for Hillary too.

Not sure why Obama or Hillary do not have plans to visit my city. It was described yesterday as “the battleground city in the battleground state,” and I think there’s a lot of validity to that (and not just because I live there!) It’s proximity to Detroit would get out a lot of disenfranchised Michigan Dems. Imo, Obama also needs to spend more time in places other than college campuses. We just aren’t Madison or Ann Arbor and our voters have different concerns. I think the rustbelt crowd likes to see candidates in everyday places: downtown, public squares, coffee shops, factories, etc.

PREDICTION: Ohio goes for Hillary, and perhaps by a hefty margin. I consider my parents to be very representative of the blue collar vote and they are firm in their support. Throw in Texas and it’s gonna be close. Is there any scenario where they would run on the same ticket?

Exciting times, fellow politicos…

[roni]

I am saying simply and truthfully and correctly that the DNC is not the final voice in some of these things. The DNC answers to a higher power when it comes to seating delegates, and that higher power is a vote of all delegates present and voting on any resolution brought to the floor.

The DNC can sanction and the Convention can un-sanction if it chooses to.

It is pretty simple boys and girls.

[ryberg]

It's the reaction if they do that won't be simple. I think recognition of that, not some other sort of motivation, is precisely why Dean and Pelosi and Gore and others have been commenting as they have on the situation. As I say, Howard Dean would have the worst job in the world, if something like that came to pass, having to handle the PR and keep the party together and gearing up for the general election.

Funny stories, Mel! Thanks for those. That Ron Paul guy... I can very well picture you telling him to have a nice day.

Does Obama plan an appearance in your town? I have heard about the university campus point and would be inclined to agree, although of course all candidates tend to make more appearances where the demographics will be a bit more favorable to them, in whatever state or context.

Steve

[roni]

Originally Posted by ryberg

It's the reaction if they do that won't be simple.
Steve

I would expect the candidates to have a huge influence on the reaction of their supporters. The reaction will be directly proportional, I believe, to the political and emotional maturity of those reacting.