USA Presidential Politics - 2008

[Jacko]

Originally Posted by ryberg

I think I'll just keep playing with my extended metaphor here, and leave you boys to your argument, because I forgot a key point.
..........................Steve

Good point!

[ryberg]

Thank you!

Just tryin' to let my little light shine on reality, you know.

Looks like James Carville may be going off the Clinton sctipt and drifting that direction, too, as he's saying just winning 1 state tomorrow won't be good enough for Clinton.

Steve

[roni]

New North Carolina and Indiana polls out this morning. I think another one or two will release their last pre-election polls today.

North Carolina

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey in North Carolina: Obama 48%; Clinton 45%; --Tied Within Margin of Error
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff

May 5, 2008 — An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey conducted for the Southern Political Report shows the Democratic Primary in North Carolina tightening. The results:

Obama: 48%

Clinton: 45%

Undecided: 7%

The telephone survey was conducted Sunday May 4 of 781 registered likely voters in the Tuesday Democratic primary. It was weighted for age, race, and gender, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.”

Indiana

Suffolk's poll shows Hillary with a 6 point lead, though Insider Advantage, which has not yet released its new Indiana numbers, say (just above) that Hillary's lead has softened in Indiana.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning.

[StewartG]

Originally Posted by roni

New North Carolina and Indiana polls out this morning. I think another one or two will release their last pre-election polls today.

North Carolina

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey in North Carolina: Obama 48%; Clinton 45%; --Tied Within Margin of Error
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff

May 5, 2008 — An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey conducted for the Southern Political Report shows the Democratic Primary in North Carolina tightening. The results:

Obama: 48%

Clinton: 45%

Undecided: 7%

The telephone survey was conducted Sunday May 4 of 781 registered likely voters in the Tuesday Democratic primary. It was weighted for age, race, and gender, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.”

Indiana

Suffolk's poll shows Hillary with a 6 point lead, though Insider Advantage, which has not yet released its new Indiana numbers, say (just above) that Hillary's lead has softened in Indiana.

Guess we'll find out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning.

Interesting.

Fun to watch all the excitement of a well fought 4th quarter.

Too bad the game was lost in the first three.

[beerbreath]

Who would have ever thought,that Fox news would be doing everything it can to help Hillary Clinton.

[roni]

Originally Posted by beerbreath

Who would have ever thought,that Fox news would be doing everything it can to help Hillary Clinton.

Dear Mr. Breath,

You know that watching that channel exposes you to multiple things your life would be better lacking, right?

[beerbreath]

Originally Posted by roni

Dear Mr. Breath,

You know that watching that channel exposes you to multiple things your life would be better lacking, right?

But they are fair and balanced!!!

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by StewartG

Interesting.

Fun to watch all the excitement of a well fought 4th quarter.

Too bad the game was lost in the first three.

Now you're catching on!

Interestingly Zogby tracking still shows him at +8 in NC, after being at that or +9 each of the previous 2 days. Rasmussen also had him at +9 on their last one.

Seems like with polling, you can just kind of pick the one you lime best and then try to spin it further your way. I mean at least with these narrow aspects.

Steve

[roni]

Originally Posted by ryberg

Now you're catching on!

Interestingly Zogby tracking still shows him at +8 in NC, after being at that or +9 each of the previous 2 days. Rasmussen also had him at +9 on their last one.

Seems like with polling, you can just kind of pick the one you lime best and then try to spin it further your way. I mean at least with these narrow aspects.

Steve

Or Steve, you can do what I do and report the most recent one released on Monday at the time I reported it - quoting directly the pollster's news release that included news not considered positive for Clinton in Indiana.

[ryberg]

Seems the truth virus even got to Clinton for a moment, yesterday! When asked about the gas tax holiday, she responded

I’m not going to put my lot in with economists

Nice one!

One wonders if she'd bother consulting any economists in attempting to pull Americans out of the housing crisis or to avoid a worsening recession.

Or if she would "put her lot in" with, say, experts on terrorism and national security while trying to make our country safer. Or consult military experts as to the best manner of withdrawal for Iraq. Or talk to any environmental scientists when considering how to best protect and preserve the nature around us.

Ha -- experts -- what do they know, anyway?!?

Sounds a lot like the well known Bush/Cheney disdain for research and rational thought, actually.

Steve

[roni]

The Obama advisor who gets trotted out on the business shows to answer economic policy questions ever since they fired that one fellow for meeting with the Canandians is:

A lawyer

[ryberg]

Oh, classic! From a different article -- appearing here in the Indianapolis Star, no less -- touching on that same point

An Obama supporter picked from the audience by Stephanopoulos to ask a question in the town hall meeting format of the show said she makes less than $25,000 a year, so the price of gas is not an academic issue for her.

“I really do feel pain at the pump,” said Kara Glennon. “However, I do feel pandered to when you talk about suspending the gas tax. I don’t think that it’s really a reasonable plan. Call me crazy, but I actually listen to economists because I think they know what they’ve studied.”

Glennon asked Clinton how the proposal squared with her concerns about energy independence and global warming as lowering the gas tax would not encourage people to save energy and drive less...

Truth is here folks, and it's airborne -- take cover!

Even Stephanopoulus caught it, it seems, as he

suggested she is having it "both ways" by claiming credit for NAFTA's successes while not taking "blame for the bad." [source]

Wow, a voter who believes economists and sees through political pandering, and who makes under $25,000 but supports Obama... a journalist pointing out the evident hypocrisy in a politician's statements...



Steve

[beerbreath]

Originally Posted by roni

The Obama advisor who gets trotted out on the business shows to answer economic policy questions ever since they fired that one fellow for meeting with the Canandians is:

A lawyer

Both Hillary and Bill are lawyers,well until Bill was disbarred.

[roni]

Originally Posted by roni

The Obama advisor who gets trotted out on the business shows to answer economic policy questions ever since they fired that one fellow for meeting with the Canandians is:

A lawyer

Originally Posted by beerbreath

Both Hillary and Bill are lawyers,well until Bill was disbarred.

And that is related to the Obama advisor in exactly what way

[ryberg]

An Op-Ed piece in the NYT this morning here puts Clinton half a million behind in the popular vote and says that if about 13 events coincide in just the right way for her (one of just medium importance being a double-digit victory in IN tomorrow, for example), she might make up that difference before the clock runs out on her.

And then she could see if that mattered, of course.

That ornery voter problem she has, again...

Steve