Peak Oil

[Rissask]

I did a search and I can't believe we haven't had a discussion on this yet.

I have been doing a lot of reading and watching documentaries on the upcoming energy crisis in regards to crude oil, and it's bloody scary....much scarier than global warming. And it's amazing how it's been basically ignored and brushed under the table by the media and the public in our continent, which contains one the biggest consumers in the world.

'Peak Oil' doesn't mean we are running out of oil in the immediate future (there is still decades of oil left, most likely), just that most of the remaining oil is not the light, sweet crude that rises to the top (we've sucked out most of that) but is in tar or much deeper and harder to drill for.

Along with increasing needs as our population and industry grows, and especially with China booming, and also with less money for the oil conglomerates to set up infrastructure and maintain what they have already- means crunch time is coming.

'Peak Oil' basically just refers to the year when globally we reach peak oil production and from then on the numbers of barrels per day will start decreasing, and then we will have an energy crisis, more resource wars, (see 'Iraq') and big troubles with the economy.

Some say we have reached peak already, some say it won't be for another 5-10 years- we won't really know until we look back (like the US had their 'peak oil' year in 1971, the same goes for the whole planet).

Anyway- what do you think about this?

I brought it up with some of the guys in the shop this morning, at coffee- and I could not believe the ignorance, it was really shocking to me. One guy said he thinks we have an inexhaustible supply of oil, that basically the whole planet is sitting on a big pool of oil (oh yeah, he also thinks it isn't even truly from organic matter to begin with )....one guy thinks it's a conspiracy theory put out by the oil companies to justify higher prices, and the oil is a neverending supply....another guy said some Einstein will come up with a Magic Bullet in a lab somewhere to save us all.

So I started wondering - what do most average Joes really think about our oil supply in general? Or do you? And what do you think will happen?

I know a lot of people simply write it off as 'more doom and gloom' but this is a legit thing to be concerned about. I admit some of the people are very alarmist and negative about it, but there are also many that are just pragmatic and trying to raise awareness. The book 'A Thousand Barrels a Second' by Peter Tertzakian is really good- basically a history of man and energy from the steam engines and whaling ships of the 1700s until today; it's very easy to read.

Questions & Answers - A Thousand Barrels A Second

[MWC]

This has not been ignored in the US press ... or at least not in the NY Times. They did a feature on this issue in their Sunday magazine months ago.

I'm not sure where the information leads me. The main instigator behind much of the current frenzy is a former Saudi oil bigwig. So on one hand, one could say "If anyone would know, it's him." But one could just as easily see the guy doing whatever he could to keep the home team's oil prices high.

I do think higher prices for oil is a reality, and will be from here on in. Good news: that will make it profitable to explore alternative energy sources. It will also make it profitable to harvest the tarry oils and oil sands, which will keep the supply going.

So I'm not terribly concerned about supply for at least the next few decades. But high energy prices are here to stay.

[Rissask]

So I'm not terribly concerned about supply for at least the next few decades. But high energy prices are here to stay.

I agree with you here. And they are only going to continue to rise. Which is good, because that will force people to change their lifestyles- take more public transit, move out of the suburbs which have had their time in the sun, etc.
Fewer (or no) airplane trips too.

It's interesting to hear what the predictions are for what areas in our countries will survive once the oil is, for all intents and purposes, 'gone'....the prairies will go back to the buffalo...California, Nevada, etc will be desert and no one will live there....the BC and Oregon will be okay, except for the hordes of Asians coming over....the best place to live will be southern Ontario and Quebec, and the northwestern states, where the agrarian small farm lifestyle will sustain people.

Of course-if you believe in the magic bullet, eleventh hour, new rich source of energy discovery saving us - disregard, we will all be fine.

This has not been ignored in the US press ... or at least not in the NY Times. They did a feature on this issue in their Sunday magazine months ago.

But that is tantamount to basically ignoring it, isn't it? One feature in one magazine months ago....isn't it a bit more important than that? That is what I don't get. The head in the sand thing.

On the bright side- no more global warming.

[Just Lucky]

I've read about peak oil from a number of sources. I'd like to see a $3-4 a gallon tax put on gasoline to pay for alternative energy research and the more thorough development of mass transit. I'm sure everyone agrees with me.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by Just Lucky

I've read about peak oil from a number of sources. I'd like to see a $3-4 a gallon tax put on gasoline to pay for alternative energy research and the more thorough development of mass transit. I'm sure everyone agrees with me.

Well, I do.
I don't like it, but I see the necessity --
for all the reasons rissask listed above.

[Rissask]

Streckman, get your mind out of the gutter and think with it and not just your 'little brain'.

Originally Posted by Just Lucky

I've read about peak oil from a number of sources. I'd like to see a $3-4 a gallon tax put on gasoline to pay for alternative energy research and the more thorough development of mass transit. I'm sure everyone agrees with me.

JL- yes, that would be helpful....

The reason is simple: taxation. In places like Europe and Japan the governments have long instituted a heavy layer of taxation on gasoline to influence people’s lifestyle choices. It’s worked. People in such nations drive smaller cars and make heavier use of mass transit. The medicine has been tough over the past 20 years, but today such nations are less dependent on oil and less affected by oil price movements.

also, legislation ordering energy companies to reinvest back into refineries would help, with the supply problems if not the supply itself.

More people using mass transit, and carpooling in the cities would be helpful......but let's face it- our continent just cannot be compared logically to European countries where everything and everyone is in a much smaller space. A huge reason why we use so much more gas/oil individually here is the wide open spaces, and the logistics of all of our suburban areas, not solely because we are selfish and shortsighted.

[TAPPY]

Look at Dubai, and some of the other smaller countrys in that area, they are planning for a future with out oil by ramping up their other industrys while they still have all that oil money !

Hubby has worked in the testing/enviromental part of this industry all of his life. They are already looking deeper and deeper/out of the way places for oil. ($$$$) I do think there are still some major deposits still to be found, but it is not going to last forever. Anyone who thinks that is only fooling themselves.

[Rissask]

Originally Posted by streckman1

Ok!! Hey, I'm doing my part. My new job is a whopping mile from my house, so I'm saving a ton on gas and my drive has gone from 36 miles roundtrip down to 2. My big brain does control my little brain, I like to use one of 'em everday

Good to hear....I was only kidding with you...it's not our fault our lifestyles are the way they are, it's how we've been conditioned.

I didn't start this thread to finger point, only to discuss- we have an Avalanche 4x4 for god's sake.

That is a great thing to do, live as close as you can to where you drive everyday to, work or whatever.

This thing is a bit bigger though, than that....this is going to be a change in lifestyles the likes of which the world has never seen, in the next 50-100 years the changes are going to be huge.

The age of oil is coming to an end, and all it's 'fake' side effects, from cheap plentiful food to overpopulation.

Tappy:

Look at Dubai, and some of the other smaller countrys in that area, they are planning for a future with out oil by ramping up their other industrys while they still have all that oil money !

Hubby has worked in the testing/enviromental part of this industry all of his life. They are already looking deeper and deeper/out of the way places for oil. ($$$$) I do think there are still some major deposits still to be found, but it is not going to last forever. Anyone who thinks that is only fooling themselves.

You said it- it's the people NOT involved in the industry who don't believe...I don't get it....who do you trust, people who know the field and the facts, or people whose beliefs are based on crap...I don't get it!

Our friends just moved back here from 7 years in Dubai. Yes, they are very successfully positioning themselves as a Middle Eastern vacation oasis. But the environmental impacts are pretty huge. We'll see how it goes in the long run.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by TAPPY

Look at Dubai, and some of the other smaller countrys in that area, they are planning for a future with out oil by ramping up their other industrys while they still have all that oil money !
Hubby has worked in the testing/enviromental part of this industry all of his life. They are already looking deeper and deeper/out of the way places for oil. ($$$$) I do think there are still some major deposits still to be found, but it is not going to last forever. Anyone who thinks that is only fooling themselves.

Veering off track a bit, this is one reason why I always wondered in the back of my mind if Iran developing nuclear capabilities was not in fact more an energy-availability issue as opposed to a weapons issue.

[MWC]

Originally Posted by Rissask

The age of oil is coming to an end, and all it's 'fake' side effects, from cheap plentiful food to overpopulation.

...

Not necessarily bad things at all. There are so many environmental effects our petro-chemical dependency has fueled, (pun, lol), it is huge.

[Rissask]

Originally Posted by MWC

Not necessarily bad things at all. There are so many environmental effects our petro-chemical dependency has fueled, (pun, lol), it is huge.

Oh yeah, I don't think it's either bad or good, it is just a natural progression of what happens in a world with a cheap, plentiful, energy rich fuel widely available. It will revert back to normal in a couple centuries.

Veering off into fantasyland- ever see 'Children of Men'? The best thing with the least amount of pain and suffering, would be that type of scenario. If sperm levels fall off to zippo in 99%, say, of men, so only 1% of people could reproduce.

Even better would be if they were the smallest people, so save even more resources, ha.

[TAPPY]

Originally Posted by Rissask

Oh yeah, I don't think it's either bad or good, it is just a natural progression of what happens in a world with a cheap, plentiful, energy rich fuel widely available. It will revert back to normal in a couple centuries.

Veering off into fantasyland- ever see 'Children of Men'? The best thing with the least amount of pain and suffering, would be that type of scenario. If sperm levels fall off to zippo in 99%, say, of men, so only 1% of people could reproduce.
Even better would be if they were the smallest people, so save even more resources, ha.

Saw that this weekend, what a depressing movie !

[Beachnutt719]

Originally Posted by TAPPY

Saw that this weekend, what a depressing movie !

Oh, glad you said that. Was planning on watching it, but I don't need depressing. Guess I will probably pass.

[IslandBob]

Any extra tax on gas now would be a complete waste of the people’s money and would be wasted by politicians on their buddy’s projects. Necessity is the mother of all invention. There is way to much money to made on whatever energy source to be used next not to let business and industry do their own research and development. Most likely most of them already are doing just that. Supply and demand will foster in the next energy source just fine. As far as reaching peak oil, we are still 20 plus years out. I had a professor in college over fifteen years ago who said we would be out of oil in ten years. I did not believe him of course but this type of talk has been around for 30 years. And who is to say that as the middleeast dries up their supply (the sooner the better) the next biggest supply won’t be discovered. I have a theory that America is strategically using oil supplies of other parts of the world on purpose and we will be in the driver’s seat with our own sources as the others go bye bye.
.

[Rissask]

Necessity is the mother of all invention. There is way to much money to made on whatever energy source to be used next not to let business and industry do their own research and development. Most likely most of them already are doing just that. Supply and demand will foster in the next energy source just fine.

'Supply and demand' can't whip up a some new undiscovered substance that is equal in energy to oil though.
Neither will the mere fact that we 'need' it.
This is called the magic bullet/wishful thinking school of thought.

I mean, it'd be NICE if it happened....but don't bet the farm on it.

Most likely, what we will have is a combination of several sources, wind, solar, nuclear, some biodeisel....but all put together they will be a drop in the bucket for what we use in energy today.

As far as reaching peak oil, we are still 20 plus years out.

Actually, they don't know the year we will reach it. It could be in five, ten, or 20 more years. It could be 2007. Can't read the future.
And who knows how much Saudi and Iraq, etc. have in reserves, there has long been incentive for them to exaggerate, so exact figures are unknown.

I did not believe him of course but this type of talk has been around for 30 years. And who is to say that as the middleeast dries up their supply (the sooner the better) the next biggest supply won’t be discovered.

The world has been mapped for oilfields exhaustively. Including the oceans and the Arctic/Antarctica.

They know where the oilfields are. Ask anyone who works in the industry.

No one is saying we are 'almost out of oil'. We aren't.

We are, however, running out of the good stuff (the light sweet crude than comes to the top) and fast.

We wouldn't be spending hundreds of millions of dollars and using one barrel to get three in the oilsands of Alberta if we knew where some good stuff was, would we?

Know what EROEI is? Energy returned on energy invested.

When oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. That ratio has declined steadily over the last century to about three barrels gained for one barrel used up in the U.S. (and about ten for one in Saudi Arabia).

THAT is the problem, not that we are running out, (although we will one day, once it is so deep and hard to get at that it take one barrel to get one barrel- no more drilling).

I have a theory that America is strategically using oil supplies of other parts of the world on purpose and we will be in the driver’s seat with our own sources as the others go bye bye.

Really? Where do you think it is? (Iraq! )

Nice conspiracy theory, but I doubt it. Could you keep that a secret, d'ya think?