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Old 06-14-2015   #4951 (permalink)
añejo
 
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9:00 am Update from noaa (re: Al's earlier post):


A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG EXTENDS FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA...AROUND
14/0345 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W
AND 87W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CARRYING WITH IT GALE-
FORCE WINDS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER
IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THIS
AFTERNOON...IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY TO DO SO. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR MIAHSFAT2. THE CHANCES OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.


As Al's avatar notes, Playa's longitude and latitude are 87.0799 west and 20.6274 north, which is within the areas noted above in the noaa forecast for gale force winds. Hold onto your hat.

Note that the phraseology that 'the chances of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium', refers to the 40-60% chance indicated by the orange X on the noaa map, and is approximately equal to the odds of tossing a coin: heads you win, tails you lose. Go figure...

Frankly, the damn thing looks whirlier and whirlier every time I look at it (which is every 30 minutes, when the new sat pic is up). I might have to stop looking...

Last edited by beam-eye; 06-14-2015 at 11:06 AM..
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Old 06-14-2015   #4952 (permalink)
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As a follow-up to beam-eye's above post:

"POSSIBLE CYCLONE FORMATION IN QUNITANA ROO DURING NEXT 48 HOURS
Anne Pérez | June 14, 2015
Cancun braces for possible cyclone
Cancun, Q.R. – The National Weather Service is warning of a potential Atlantic cyclone for the state of Quintana Roo.

A zone of instability in southern Quintana Roo, which is associated with a low pressure system, has a 40 percent chance of developing into a cyclone during the next 48 hours.

As of early Sunday, the system of instability was located 60 kilometers south-southwest of Chetumal. The National Weather Services says the storm is moving slowly toward the northwest with sustained winds of 35 mph and guests of 45 mph.

The presence of this system will cause intense rains accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds in the state.

Channel ports in Cancun, Puerto Morelos and Playa del Carmen / Cozumel were closed all day Saturday due to high winds and sea swells from the low pressure system.

A report from the Cancun fire department said that there have not yet been any cases of severe flooding thanks to the fast work of brigade cleaning crews around Cancun and Playa del Carmen. The crews spent the past several days cleaning garbage from sewer systems as well as removing garbage from streets to ensure the absorption wells did not become blocked.

According to the latest data issued by the National Hurricane Center, the low pressure system that is located east of the Yucatan Peninsula has a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

The probability of occurrence is low because there is development of a substantial upper atmospheric anticyclone south of Cuba that will, over the next day or so, absorb the current low pressure system.

The state of Quintana Roo will continue to experience light to moderate rains over the next 24 hours."
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Old 06-14-2015   #4953 (permalink)
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Curious how anything that might develop would cause a "POSSIBLE CYCLONE FORMATION IN QUNITANA ROO DURING NEXT 48 HOURS". The storm will be moving away from the area - if it was going to intensify, wouldn't it do so once it hits the Gulf, therefore making Texas a potential target? Tomorrow's forecast is for mixed clouds and sun w/ scattered thunderstorms.
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Old 06-14-2015   #4954 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shammy View Post
Curious how anything that might develop would cause a "POSSIBLE CYCLONE FORMATION IN QUNITANA ROO DURING NEXT 48 HOURS". The storm will be moving away from the area - if it was going to intensify, wouldn't it do so once it hits the Gulf, therefore making Texas a potential target? Tomorrow's forecast is for mixed clouds and sun w/ scattered thunderstorms.
Just as I was reading your post, I heard some noise. It was the rain starting up for the first time today here .
Luckily, I have already been to MEGA to do some shopping
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Old 06-14-2015   #4955 (permalink)
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Thanks for the updates! Yep just started raining but hoping for a little break to hit up some tacos soon. These little girls I'm with are anti-rain princesses.
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Old 06-14-2015   #4956 (permalink)
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We were caught in the diluvio... winds were blowing the tables at el floristero all around. what an adventure! we are just now getting dried off....amazing!
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Old 06-14-2015   #4957 (permalink)
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The noaa site has now updated the chance of a cyclone to greater than 60% (see the red cross just NW of Playa, heading into the Gulf - hopefully it's now past us, but we could still catch some wayward winds)

National Hurricane Center

and the intellcast sat pics show more pre-whirling activity:

Intellicast - Infrared Satellite in Caribbean

If there's Big Wind, stay inside - there could be lots of flying objects in the air, everything from the tables at La Floresta, to the tops of the water tanks on the roofs, to tin and plastic corrugated roofing, to tree limbs.

Last edited by beam-eye; 06-14-2015 at 02:22 PM..
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Old 06-14-2015   #4958 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beam-eye View Post
The noaa site has now updated the chance of a cyclone to greater than 60% (see the red cross just NE of Playa, heading into the Gulf - hopefully it's now past us, but we could still catch some wayward winds)

National Hurricane Center

and the intellcast sat pics show more pre-whirling activity:

Intellicast - Infrared Satellite in Caribbean

If there's Big Wind, stay inside - there could be lots of flying objects in the air, everything from the tables at La Floresta, to the tops of the water tanks on the roofs, to tin and plastic corrugated roofing, to tree limbs.
thx beam eye. I was out there when it started.
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Old 06-14-2015   #4959 (permalink)
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Here is a zoomed in view of the Gulf and western Caribbean.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin...10&quality=100
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Old 06-14-2015   #4960 (permalink)
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Looks like it has blown north, skies appear to be getting lighter. Is it over?
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Old 06-14-2015   #4961 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayaWeatherman View Post
Here is a zoomed in view of the Gulf and western Caribbean.

NASA/MSFC Interactive GOES Data Selector
Thanks for the graphic graphic, PW - looks scary. Let's hope it sneaks on through the channel and disappears itself...
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Old 06-14-2015   #4962 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beam-eye View Post
Thanks for the graphic graphic, PW - looks scary. Let's hope it sneaks on through the channel and disappears itself...
That's how nor'easter's form as they come up the east coast. You may get some but it'll make an interesting track!
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Old 06-14-2015   #4963 (permalink)
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Looking pretty organized. Here is visible GOES satellite image.



Loop of this is here:
GOES-East Satellite Loop
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Old 06-14-2015   #4964 (permalink)
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Now 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation:

Get the latest at:
U.S. National Hurricane Center
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Old 06-14-2015   #4965 (permalink)
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Looks like a drier week ahead for the Riviera Maya. This from the Mexican National Weather Service:

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