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Old 12-12-2017   #5761 (permalink)
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I'm wearing flannel pants and a jacket right now.
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Old 12-21-2017   #5762 (permalink)
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Winter solstice, shortest day, longest night of the year, etc., and cooler here by maybe Sat or so. Winter is icumen in...

Last edited by beam-eye; 12-21-2017 at 04:43 PM..
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5763 (permalink)
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Well, 'Out-like-a-lamb' got here just in time, with only 2 days to go. It's been a windy, but pleasant, March.

The links are so I don't have to go looking for them. And although it's way too early for hurricane activity - the earliest one I remember was April 26th a few years ago (maybe 5?) that missed the Caribbean entirely - there's an interesting swirly-looking thing on the Intellicast map not too far out in the North Atlantic at about Lat 25 N, Long 55 W - probably just an early-practice air-ball...


Last edited by beam-eye; 3 Weeks Ago at 05:22 AM..
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5764 (permalink)
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Already in the 90’s here in AZ. We go to Playa in the summer to cool off...
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5765 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by AZGonzo View Post
Already in the 90’s here in AZ. We go to Playa in the summer to cool off...
Yep, not much sea breeze in AZ. Keep thinking I'll go to the mountains in Chiapas one of these summers, but haven't done it yet. Maybe this year if I can overcome the pleasures of tropical torpor.
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5766 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beam-eye View Post
...pleasant, March...
Personally, I thought it was - except for a few cool nights - hotter than HELL!

Although I'll concede there was often a nice breeze.
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5767 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Susie Q Roo View Post
Personally, I thought it was - except for a few cool nights - hotter than HELL!

Although I'll concede there was often a nice breeze.
We have used the AC one afternoon and evening so far.

Fans have sufficed so far.

There is a shift in life as the heat comes in, though. Will have to go to the movies some and enjoy air conditioned entertainment.
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5768 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by AZGonzo View Post
Already in the 90’s here in AZ. We go to Playa in the summer to cool off...

I lived in AZ for a few years. The "It's a dry heat" thing really is a thing. I felt far more cool and comfortable in AZ at 105 in the shade than I do in Playa at 90 when the humidity is 99%+. Now those 118 days are something else...
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5769 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrewJones View Post
I lived in AZ for a few years. The "It's a dry heat" thing really is a thing. I felt far more cool and comfortable in AZ at 105 in the shade than I do in Playa at 90 when the humidity is 99%+. Now those 118 days are something else...
So true. I would take 105 and dry vs 85 and humid any day. But...July-Sept we get 105+ AND Humid...that is no bueno!!!

All in all...both places are pretty awesome!
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Old 3 Weeks Ago   #5770 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by AZGonzo View Post
So true. I would take 105 and dry vs 85 and humid any day. But...July-Sept we get 105+ AND Humid...that is no bueno!!!

All in all...both places are pretty awesome!

A friend of mine from Iowa moved to AZ. He was new to motorcycles and new to AZ. He rode the bike in 115 heat on the highway with no arm covering and his arm hairs melted off.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5771 (permalink)
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Overcast, starting to sprinkle now. Out-like-a-lamb was late, now April showers is a day early. But temp is wonderful.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5772 (permalink)
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2018 Hurricane Season Forecast

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...6OE?li=BBnbfcL
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5773 (permalink)
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Odd - this is not what we heard last week.

Quote:
Forecasters Are Warning This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be Worse Than Usual
Time, by Justin Worland

This year’s hurricane season is shaping to be another big one with a greater than 60% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline, according to a new forecast from top meteorologists.

Researchers at Colorado State University estimate that seven hurricanes and 14 named storms will form during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season with the intensity of the season slightly above the average from recent decades.

An above-average hurricane season this year would follow devastation wrecked by a series of 12 named storms in 2017. More than 100 people died as a result of major storms last year and the events caused an estimated $200 billion in damage, according to figures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Unusually warm waters in the western tropical Atlantic contributed to the forecast for an above-average season as hurricanes form more easily in warm conditions. Waters in other parts of the Atlantic remained cooler than average.

The forecast comes long before hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and projections will improve as summer approaches.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/forecaste...155004384.html

Must be Trump bestowing his usual disarray, discord, and disorder on the weather - like Joe Btfsplk, he creates his own weather with big wind and a dark cloud.



http://contentmarketingdigest.com/wp...oe-Btfsplk.png

Last edited by beam-eye; 2 Weeks Ago at 09:53 PM..
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5774 (permalink)
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It has often seemed to me like these forecasts are inconsistent with each other, and never seemed like they are all that helpful in terms of advance knowledge or preparation...
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5775 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by ryberg View Post
It has often seemed to me like these forecasts are inconsistent with each other, and never seemed like they are all that helpful in terms of advance knowledge or preparation...

Like many things in science... you can blame the media and the public's general misunderstanding of the scientific process. The original paper, which takes a couple clicks to find, addresses exactly your question:


Quote:
Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal
hurricane activity?



We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about the probability of the coming year’s hurricane activity which is superior to climatology. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are curious to know how active the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years. Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year. Our early April statistical forecast methodology shows strong evidence over 29 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had a statistical model developed over a long hindcast period which showed significant skill over climatology. We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.

Well that was a mouthful! And not nearly as entertaining as "OMG! RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES COMING YOUR WAY!" But it's the same thing as people misunderstanding biological evolution, or how the planet can be warming while it's snowing in April, or why fruit fly research in France is worth funding.


We have a free press, so I'm not really going to condemn the media for reporting things with catchy headlines. But I do think everyone would do well to ignore the click-bait headlines and read underlying research (on any topic) before forming too strong of an opinion.


So the short answer to your (implied) question is, that these forecasts aren't intended help your in preparation. All people with property interests in a hurricane zone should always be prepared, because even in a low season, you might happen to live in the place where the one hits.
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