Tropical Storm Dolly?

LemonHead · 07-20-2008

Anybody else watching this one? It's looking like the Q Roo may get very wet on Monday/Tuesday. Hopefully nothing major for the locals and those of us coming down the first of next week.

**Susie Q Roo** · 07-20-2008

This has been named? I still don't see anything other than Invest 94, the center of which appears to be hitting substantially south of here.

LemonHead · 07-20-2008

Not named as of midnight CST but a cluster of massive thunderheads have popped up on all four corners around the center of low pressure. This should lead to rotation and it should be named by early Sunday if it holds to normal forms.

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Arnie · 07-20-2008

Wtnt34 Knhc 201542
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dolly Special Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
1145 Am Edt Sun Jul 20 2008

...fourth Tropical Storm Of The Atlantic Season Forms In The Western
Caribbean Sea...

At 1145 Am Edt...1545 Utc...the Government Of Mexico Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico From The
Border With Belize To Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The
Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1145 Am Edt...1545z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was
Located Near Latitude 18.4 North...longitude 84.2 West Or About 270
Miles...435 Km...east Of Chetumal Mexico And About 230 Miles...365
Km...southeast Of Cozumel Mexico.

Dolly Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/hr. A
Northwestward Or West-northwestward Motion Is Forecast During The
Next Couple Of Days...with Little Change In Forward Speed. On This
Track...the Center Of Dolly Will Move Across The Yucatan Peninsula
Of Mexico Tonight And Emerge Over The Southern Gulf Of Mexico On
Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Slight Strengthening Is Possible Today Before Dolly Reaches
The Yucatan Peninsula. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast On Monday
Once Dolly Emerges Over The Southern Gulf Of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km
From The Center. Dolly Could Produce Winds Near Tropical Storm
Force...especially In Gusts...over The Western Tip Of Cuba Today.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By A Noaa
Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Of 4 To 6 Inches Across The
Northern Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico And Western Cuba...with
Isolated Maximum Amounts Up To 10 Inches. An Additional 2 To 4
Inches Is Expected In The Cayman Islands...with A Storm Total Of Up
To 8 Inches.

Repeating The 1145 Am Edt Position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 17 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

We now have tropical storm Dolly,and a warning for the Yucatan.From the NHC:
T 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

Arnie,you beat me!

TAPPY · 07-20-2008

Oh crap !

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

Maybe someone should take the ? out of the headline of this thread.

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

Looks like the bars will be hopping in Playa the next couple of days.

MaeEast · 07-20-2008

That thing is probably not going to strengthen until it hits the gulf, and Brownsville is looking like it could get smashed at that point...

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaeEast

That thing is probably not going to strengthen until it hits the gulf, and Brownsville is looking like it could get smashed at that point...

There is nothing to impede it getting stronger today or tonight.It will weaken over the Yucatan and then most likely regain strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

Be safe all that are in Playa,but have fun too.

**Susie Q Roo** · 07-20-2008

I'm a little confused. Wunderground is still showing Invest 94 AND TS Dolly. Aren't they one and the same?

beerbreath · 07-20-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Susie Q Roo

I'm a little confused. Wunderground is still showing Invest 94 AND TS Dolly. Aren't they one and the same?

They are most likely just running behind.94 became TS Dolly.

The center of Dolly should come ashore on the Yucatan at around 2:30am Monday morning.Effects of Dolly should start there tonight.

07-20-2008	#1 (permalink)
LemonHead Registered User Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Dallas Suburbs Posts: 12	Tropical Storm Dolly? Anybody else watching this one? It's looking like the Q Roo may get very wet on Monday/Tuesday. Hopefully nothing major for the locals and those of us coming down the first of next week.

07-20-2008	#2 (permalink)
Susie Q Roo Critter Magnet Join Date: May 2003 Location: Q Roo Posts: 16,084	This has been named? I still don't see anything other than Invest 94, the center of which appears to be hitting substantially south of here.

07-20-2008	#3 (permalink)
LemonHead Registered User Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Dallas Suburbs Posts: 12	Not named as of midnight CST but a cluster of massive thunderheads have popped up on all four corners around the center of low pressure. This should lead to rotation and it should be named by early Sunday if it holds to normal forms.

07-20-2008	#4 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265	THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

07-20-2008	#5 (permalink)
Arnie beachaholic Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Glencoe IL. Posts: 258	Wtnt34 Knhc 201542 Tcpat4 Bulletin Tropical Storm Dolly Special Advisory Number 1 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008 1145 Am Edt Sun Jul 20 2008 ...fourth Tropical Storm Of The Atlantic Season Forms In The Western Caribbean Sea... At 1145 Am Edt...1545 Utc...the Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico From The Border With Belize To Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 1145 Am Edt...1545z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was Located Near Latitude 18.4 North...longitude 84.2 West Or About 270 Miles...435 Km...east Of Chetumal Mexico And About 230 Miles...365 Km...southeast Of Cozumel Mexico. Dolly Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/hr. A Northwestward Or West-northwestward Motion Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days...with Little Change In Forward Speed. On This Track...the Center Of Dolly Will Move Across The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico Tonight And Emerge Over The Southern Gulf Of Mexico On Monday. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Slight Strengthening Is Possible Today Before Dolly Reaches The Yucatan Peninsula. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast On Monday Once Dolly Emerges Over The Southern Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km From The Center. Dolly Could Produce Winds Near Tropical Storm Force...especially In Gusts...over The Western Tip Of Cuba Today. The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches. Dolly Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Of 4 To 6 Inches Across The Northern Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico And Western Cuba...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Up To 10 Inches. An Additional 2 To 4 Inches Is Expected In The Cayman Islands...with A Storm Total Of Up To 8 Inches. Repeating The 1145 Am Edt Position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement Toward...northwest Near 17 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb. An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 200 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500 Pm Edt. $$ Forecaster Knabb

07-20-2008	#6 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265	We now have tropical storm Dolly,and a warning for the Yucatan.From the NHC: T 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07-20-2008	#7 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265	Arnie,you beat me!

07-20-2008	#8 (permalink)
TAPPY añejo Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 21,148	Oh crap !

07-20-2008	#9 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265	Maybe someone should take the ? out of the headline of this thread.

07-20-2008	#10 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265

07-20-2008	#11 (permalink)
beerbreath añejo Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,265	Looks like the bars will be hopping in Playa the next couple of days.

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07-20-2008	#12 (permalink)
MaeEast beachaholic Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: NYC Posts: 288	That thing is probably not going to strengthen until it hits the gulf, and Brownsville is looking like it could get smashed at that point...

07-20-2008	#14 (permalink)
Susie Q Roo Critter Magnet Join Date: May 2003 Location: Q Roo Posts: 16,084	I'm a little confused. Wunderground is still showing Invest 94 AND TS Dolly. Aren't they one and the same?