Presidential Campaign: 2012

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by jeffandbecky

It was from their analysis that they came up with 284 electoral votes for the Bamster. I didn't pull that number out of thin air, they did.

Mm-hmm...

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by Babaloo

22,000+ posts

Recap

Things are better
Things suck more than ever
Here's a poll
No, here's a poll
Look at these numbers
No, look at these numbers
You're a dillweed
No, you're butt munch.

And on and on and on it goes

That "recap" link doesn't seem to work...

[Babaloo]

Originally Posted by ryberg

That "recap" link doesn't seem to work...

It ain't a link.
It's a heading.

[Mercy]

Originally Posted by Babaloo

22,000+ posts

Recap

Things are better
Things suck more than ever
Here's a poll
No, here's a poll
Look at these numbers
No, look at these numbers
You're a dillweed
No, you're butt munch.

And on and on and on it goes

I agree.

[horizon200]

Originally Posted by Babaloo

22,000+ posts

Recap

Things are better
Things suck more than ever
Here's a poll
No, here's a poll
Look at these numbers
No, look at these numbers
You're a dillweed
No, you're butt munch.

And on and on and on it goes

Give it some time...I'm sure one side will convert the other eventually!


When is this guy going to run? I know nothing about him...But, at this point, I'm willing to vote for him just because of these comments!

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/c...200058987.html

"We as 'the electorate' must also bear responsibility for changing the tone of politics as usual," he continued. "Not just root harder for our side ... I'm sick to my stomach of the politics of destruction. We now have a [federal government] that can't come together [and] solve our nation's problems. I'll always prioritize my nation over a political party. [And] right now crass divisive partisan politics is not serving the citizens of my city."

EDIT: Just saw his back peddling video...damn...I thought we'd found someone who would stick to his guns...apparently not.

[roni]

Originally Posted by jeffandbecky

Not according to the Huff pollsters, already in the bag. Glad to see you disagree with them.

Those are not Huff pollsters.

I am expressing my opinion based on the history of the last couple of decades.

I am still predicting an Obama victory.

Intrade is giving Romney less than a 40% chance of winning as of this morning.

[roni]

This is a bit long, but worth reading, from Juan Williams. This is not the entire piece.

Opinion: Ethnic voter turnout will decide November

But William Frey, the Brookings Institution’s respected demographer, recently performed a revealing experiment on this exact subject.

Frey created three models for polling based on three different sets of possible voters in this year’s election.

Frey makes an important distinction between turnout and eligibility. For example, for every 100 African Americans in the population, only 69 are eligible voters. For Hispanics the yield is even lower, as only 44 eligible voters can be found for every 100. Among whites, however, there are 78 eligible voters out of every 100.

In addition, there are new voter laws requiring photographic proof of every voter’s identity at the polls. These laws, being pushed by Republicans despite a lack of any evidence of widespread voter fraud, are expected to suppress turnout among young, poor, and minority voters.

These new factors born of the changing demographics of the country have to be considered in order to do accurate polling this year.

So, Frey created three scenarios for 2012, each based on different assumptions about white and minority turnout and voting patterns.

One important note —Frey stayed away from voter turnout data for the 2010 mid-term elections. He decided it would be an apples and orange scenario to compare a high profile presidential election campaign with a mid-term congressional election.

So, basing his work on voter data from 2004 and 2008, the last two presidential elections, Frey built polling models for November 2012.

Here is what he found:

In the first scenario — let’s call it “A” — Frey assumes that the 2008 turnout and voting patterns will again apply to the new electorate of 2012. If that happens, Obama wins the election with 29 states and 358 electoral votes. These are the same states he took in 2008—changing racial demographics do not shift any new states to him under this scenario. As with his 2008 win, victories in 10 battleground states can be attributed to minority voters.

In the second scenario — let’s call it “B” — Frey applies 2004 turnout and voting patterns to the 2012 electorate. Under this assumption, Romney beats Obama with 286 electoral votes in 30 states. The model assumes stronger white support for the GOP than in scenario “A.” Lower minority turnout dooms the Obama campaign.

And then there is scenario “C.” Frey thinks this is the most likely scenario for the fall election. Whites are assumed to follow their 2004 turnout and voting patterns, reflecting strong GOP antagonism to the President. Minorities are presumed to follow their strong 2008 turnout and voting margins in favor of Obama. Obama wins scenario “C” with 292 electoral votes spread among 24 states.

Under this model, 230 votes come from 14 states where minorities are responsible for an Obama victory. Frey says that under this scenario four-fifths of Obama’s electoral votes will be in states won by minorities.

This scenario also narrowly awards Romney five states that Obama won in 2008: Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado. It just so happens these are five states where voters have rejected gay marriage when it has been put to a referendum – North Carolina being the most recent to do so.

This gives Romney 246 from 27 states but it is not enough to make the difference. While whites vote for the GOP in each, overall margins are very close in Ohio and Missouri, large states with substantial minority populations.

If demography is destiny, then Mitt Romney and the GOP are destined for an uphill battle as they try to retake the White House. Still, 1 out of 3 is not bad odds for a presidential contest.

Frey’s analyses confirm that turnout will be critical in determining whether President Obama will be re-elected. Look for the patterns of white, black and brown to determine which states go red and blue during this election.

[ryberg]

Originally Posted by Babaloo

It ain't a link.
It's a heading.

Yes.

Originally Posted by roni

This is a bit long, but worth reading, from Juan Williams. This is not the entire piece.

Opinion: Ethnic voter turnout will decide November

Thanks — interesting stuff.

Take a look at the reader comments section there for scarier stuff.

[bearcat]

Originally Posted by horizon200

Give it some time...I'm sure one side will convert the other eventually!


When is this guy going to run? I know nothing about him...But, at this point, I'm willing to vote for him just because of these comments!

Cory Booker slams Obama campaign ad attacking Romney



EDIT: Just saw his back peddling video...damn...I thought we'd found someone who would stick to his guns...apparently not.

Go to Newark one day and after your visit ask yourself. "do I want the Mayor of this city to be in charge of the country?" Booker is all sizzle, no steak. He talks a great game, unfortunately out of both sides of his mouth. I will give him credit for one thing though, he has not been indicted during his tenure.

[STOGEY]

I was and still am pretty grossed out, about this pink slime business. Pink slime is basically the scraps of meat and fat from a cow or steer. That found their way onto the floor. While the animal was being processed.

These scraps are sanitized with ammonia. Which is a by product of urine. Are used as filler in the cheaper forms of meat products such as hamburger. Pink slime can be mixed in with the meat at the production plant. To be sold to your fast food resturaunts such as Burger King, Wendys etc. Pink slime can be added ro the cbeaper cuts of meat at your local food store. To be sold as hamburger.

When you buy pre packaged meat balls. You're getting a mouthful of pink slime.


A meat product marked at hamburger. Is almost guaranteed to have this pink slime stuff in it. Unless the package is marked as sirloin.

Most of the pink slime will find it's way into the shopping centers. That are located in lower class neighborhoods.

[STOGEY]

Pink slime itself isn't harmful, because it has been sterilized by ammonia. On the other hand there's no nutritional value in it.

The FDA said that pink slime is ok for use in meat products, for use by is humans. However pink slime can not be used in the production of food for animals.

President Obama and especially his wife Michelle, are always claiming how they're trying to bring higher nutritional standards ro our schools and the poorer neighborhoods. Yet it is the President who appoints the hierarchy of the FDA. Who has okayed the use of this pink slime.

It is the lower class neighborhoods that are affected most by the use of pink slime.

[Mexivoof]

Hey, I just moved back north of the border from Illinois, am in Paul Ryan's district. I sure hope Romney doesn't tap him for veep, I would love to vote for him at least once!!

[birdman]

Originally Posted by STOGEY

The FDA said that pink slime is ok for use in meat products, for use by is humans. However pink slime can not be used in the production of food for animals.

President Obama and especially his wife Michelle, are always claiming how they're trying to bring higher nutritional standards ro our schools and the poorer neighborhoods. Yet it is the President who appoints the hierarchy of the FDA. Who has okayed the use of this pink slime.

Stogey,
The problem with your analysis is; Barack Obama & hiw wife Michelle could give a crap less about the elderly, the poor, or the underprivileged.
They are the pawns of liberal policitians & make very good type / hype for the mainstream media.
It is sad that so much money has been spent to educate these people but they continue to be completely ignorant when it comes to being used year, after year, after year, by these scammers.

[birdman]

"This is my last election, tell Mr. Putin to be patient until I am re-elected then I will have more flexibility."
This from mouth of Barack Obama, heard over a microphone he thought had been turned off.
This gives one an understanding of just what Barack Obama has in store for the U.S.A. for 2013 & beyond if he is re-elected.
I wonder what he has promised the leaders of Iran, North Korea, & China behind closed doors.
This clip should be the lead for every compaign ad shown by the G O P this year.

[D33RHUNT3R]

Originally Posted by birdman

"This is my last election, tell Mr. Putin to be patient until I am re-elected then I will have more flexibility."
This from mouth of Barack Obama, heard over a microphone he thought had been turned off.
This gives one an understanding of just what Barack Obama has in store for the U.S.A. for 2013 & beyond if he is re-elected.
I wonder what he has promised the leaders of Iran, North Korea, & China behind closed doors.
This clip should be the lead for every compaign ad shown by the G O P this year.