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Old 10-24-2011   #16 (permalink)
very sparkly
 
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So... as luck would have it, we arrive in PDC tomorrow and fly out Sunday. Under the current forecast, what would you with experience guess our week will look like as far as weather? I mean, should I gear my mind up for rain all day every day? Please, please don't tell me yes. :-(
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Old 10-24-2011   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by matt1025 View Post
So... as luck would have it, we arrive in PDC tomorrow and fly out Sunday. Under the current forecast, what would you with experience guess our week will look like as far as weather? I mean, should I gear my mind up for rain all day every day? Please, please don't tell me yes. :-(
You may wish to read this...

Hurricane Rina is forecast to strike Mexico as an intense hurricane at about 11:15 GMT on 27 October. - AlertNet

Quote:
Hurricane Rina is forecast to strike Mexico as an intense hurricane at about 11:15 GMT on 27 October.Data supplied by the US National Hurricane Center suggest that the point of landfall will benear19.2 N,87.0 W.Rina is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around194 km/h (120 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybe considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Rina's strength (category 3)at landfall includes:
  • Storm surge generally 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal.
  • Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures.
  • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
  • Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
  • Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
  • Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
  • Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 metres (5 feet) above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km (8 miles) or more.
  • Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
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Old 10-24-2011   #18 (permalink)
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From Dr. Jeff

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Forecast for Rina

The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models. The completely opposite scenario is predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, which forecast Rina will stay just south of the high shear/dry air region, and attain major hurricane status.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...s/article.html
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Old 10-24-2011   #19 (permalink)
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Did a quick check on the weather for my stay in PDC next week:



I think I may contact my travel agent about re-booking possibilities.
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Old 10-24-2011   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by la flama blanca View Post
Did a quick check on the weather for my stay in PDC next week:

I think I may contact my travel agent about re-booking possibilities.
If you rebook. I can pretty much guarantee the forecast for you new dates will show chance of rain and perhaps even thunderstorms almost every day. The forecast is the same for about 360 days a year. Most vacationers only check it as their vacation comes up, and so they don't notice the forecast is constant year round.
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Old 10-24-2011   #21 (permalink)
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Won't get much storm surge/flooding issues here, and certainly not like Katrina brought to NOLA, for example. We got that nice steep ol' continental shelf goin' for us.

As Dr Jeff presented it years ago (with one of my favorite images):

Quote:


FIgure 1. Topography of the ocean bottom. Where a long expanse of shallow waters over the Continental Shelf (light blue) exist next to the coast, one can expect increased storm surge potential. The waters off the coast of Cancun/Cozumel are quite deep, limiting the maximum potential storm surge to about 11 feet. The Continental Shelf is quite extensive off the west coast of Florida, making that region prone to large storm surges. Image credit: NOAA.
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Old 10-24-2011   #22 (permalink)
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satellite images and reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate that Rina has rapidly strengthened. The
aircraft reported peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 68 kt and
believable SFMR winds around 65 kt. Based on these data the
initial intensity is increased to 65 kt...making Rina the 6th
hurricane of season in the Atlantic Basin. This special advisory
has been issued to increase the initial and forecast intensities
from the previous forecast...but no change to the track was
required.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 24/1800z 17.1n 83.0w 65 kt 75 mph
12h 25/0000z 17.4n 83.4w 75 kt 85 mph
24h 25/1200z 17.6n 84.0w 90 kt 105 mph
36h 26/0000z 17.8n 84.8w 100 kt 115 mph
48h 26/1200z 18.1n 85.7w 105 kt 120 mph
72h 27/1200z 19.2n 87.0w 100 kt 115 mph
96h 28/1200z 20.5n 87.0w 90 kt 105 mph
120h 29/1200z 21.0n 86.0w 80 kt 90 mph


This is the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Playa is at approx.
20.4n latitude, 87.3 longitude. Not a good forecast, yet these forecasts are far from an exact science. Hopefully it will move to the north through the Yucatan Channel
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Old 10-24-2011   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
If you rebook. I can pretty much guarantee the forecast for you new dates will show chance of rain and perhaps even thunderstorms almost every day. The forecast is the same for about 360 days a year. Most vacationers only check it as their vacation comes up, and so they don't notice the forecast is constant year round.
A very valid point. My concern is that while Rita is expected to be out of the Yucatan, PDC will experience a week residual weather and I will be sitting inside my resort while it pours outside for 7 days straight!

Am I being a little over sensitive? lol
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Old 10-24-2011   #24 (permalink)
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Actually it was nice and sunny within a day or two of the passing of the much larger Wilma. Think it was the same after Emily. So I don't think it's necessarily true that the following days are always bad. FWIW.
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Old 10-24-2011   #25 (permalink)
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Rina is supposed to hit the Yucatan late tomorrow night as a category 3 or higher hurricane.

Last edited by absoluteAL; 10-24-2011 at 02:47 PM..
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Old 10-24-2011   #26 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
Rina is supposed to hit the Yucatan late tomorrow night as a category 3 or higher hurricane.
Must be moving a lot faster than it was not too long ago

Take good care
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Old 10-24-2011   #27 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
Rina is supposed to hit the Yucatan late tomorrow night as a category 3 or higher hurricane.
Well that's one thing people are saying. Another is what Roni noted that Dr Jeff noted: that it may in fact dissipate before it quite gets here.

Quote:
Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models.
Also the NHC composite projection (which Dr Jeff notes looks just about right) shows a non-major hurricane and indicates overnight Thursday or Friday morning, not tomorrow night.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...daynl#contents

Last edited by ryberg; 10-24-2011 at 02:54 PM..
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Old 10-24-2011   #28 (permalink)
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Every weather site I'm looking at still has it hitting Thursday morning as a Cat1... but admittedly they each say anything could happen.
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Old 10-24-2011   #29 (permalink)
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Hurricane Rina : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground

take precautions and hope you all stay safe, most sites are saying it is gaining strength rapidly. hope it's not true.
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Old 10-24-2011   #30 (permalink)
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there is zero chance it hits tomorrow

that is 100% guaranteed, unless there is an unexpected time warp and wednesday gets canceled
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