Playa del Carmen, Mexico's virtual guidebook written by locals
 

Go Back   www.Playa.info > General discussion > General - Playa del Carmen
FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-24-2011   #31 (permalink)
añejo
 
absoluteAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Latitude 20.6326 Longitude 87.0685
Posts: 14,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryberg View Post
Well that's one thing people are saying. Another is what Roni noted that Dr Jeff noted: that it may in fact dissipate before it quite gets here.

Also the NHC composite projection (which Dr Jeff notes looks just about right) shows a non-major hurricane and indicates overnight Thursday or Friday morning, not tomorrow night.

Hurricane RINA
My info comes from the National Hurricance Center and the U.S. Naval Research Lab. Also have talked with Jet Blue as I am supposed to fly out from Cancun Wednesday morning

Last edited by absoluteAL; 10-24-2011 at 04:27 PM..
absoluteAL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #32 (permalink)
añejo
 
Michael's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Playa del Carmen, Q Roo.
Posts: 5,591
Send a message via AIM to Michael
Quote:
Originally Posted by la flama blanca View Post
PDC will experience a week residual weather and I will be sitting inside my resort while it pours outside for 7 days straight!
it could happen. But I've never seen it. I took a look through my post hurricane Dean pictures and the weather was nice. I don't remember any rain. I'm sure there probably was some. It certainly was not even 1 days straight.
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #33 (permalink)
life=playa
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 622
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
it could happen. But I've never seen it. I took a look through my post hurricane Dean pictures and the weather was nice. I don't remember any rain. I'm sure there probably was some. It certainly was not even 1 days straight.
We was there for wilma, and the weather afterwards was amazing not a cloud to be seen. We was there for another 4 days afterwards.
supersponge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #34 (permalink)
¡No mames güey!
 
roni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mérida, Yucatán
Posts: 75,370
We are going to fly to Houston on Thursday night as planned and go from there. We are scheduled into Cancun on Friday morning. If that can't happened we'll try for Saturday. May change plans and do all carry-on so we know what happens to our luggage

There is a flight into Merida on Saturday also.
roni is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #35 (permalink)
playa maya guy

 
ryberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Playa del Carmen
Posts: 29,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
My info comes from the National Hurricance Center and the U.S. Naval Research Lab. Also have talked with Jet Blue as I am supposed to fly out from Cancun Wednesday morning
Well, it doesn't actually come from the National Hurricane Center, at least not according to the graphics on their web site. That's the site I added the link for in my previous post.

In fact, they've just posted the 5 pm EDT update and as you can see, it shows an H (= non-major hurricane) positioned south of Cozumel at 2 pm Thursday and another one positioned north of Cozumel at 2 pm Friday.
So non-major Thursday night is the current NHC projection, in terms of the Playa area.

You can click here to see a larger version of that image (which is updated about every 3 hours).
ryberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #36 (permalink)
Travel Insurance Tester

 
Shammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Joisey Shore
Posts: 18,677
That's not so much what Weather Underground says, and what is a "non major hurricane"?

Anyway, they have it as a possible CAT 2, which I'm thinking is kinda major.




Still, there are always unknowns so, just have to wait it out.
Shammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #37 (permalink)
playa maya guy

 
ryberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Playa del Carmen
Posts: 29,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shammy View Post
That's not so much what Weather Underground says, and what is a "non major hurricane"?

Anyway, they have it as a possible CAT 2, which I'm thinking is kinda major.
Major = cat 3, 4 or 5

So obviously non-major is cat 1 or 2

Edit: Not my classification, mind you, but the official and agreed upon one:

Quote:
Major Hurricane:
A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or higher.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Last edited by ryberg; 10-24-2011 at 05:15 PM..
ryberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #38 (permalink)
lost on fifth
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago (Naperville)
Posts: 19
Hurricane rina discussion number 6
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182011
500 pm edt mon oct 24 2011

visible satellite images show several bands of deep convection
wrapping around the center of rina and a small central dense
overcast feature. The hurricane hunter aircraft has not reported
any stronger winds since their initial pass into the center just
before 1800 utc...and based on the earlier data the initial
intensity will remain 65 kt.

Rina will be traversing very warm water and remain in a low shear
environment during the next couple of days. The only negative
factor for intensification is an area of dry air to the northwest
of the cyclone. So far...rina has remained well insulated from the
dry air and the official forecast assumes that the dry air will not
reach the core during the next couple of days. After that...
Southerly shear is forecast to increase and rina is also expected
to interact with a frontal boundary that moves into the
southeastern gulf of mexico near the end of the forecast period.
The intensity forecast is very similar to the one issued in the
special advisory and is near the gfdl and hwrf guidance through 48
hours. After that time...it is closer to a blend of the statistical
and dynamical model guidance. Given the relatively small size of
the hurricane...it would not be surprising to see rapid changes
both up and down in its intensity.

The aircraft fixes show that the hurricane has slowed down. A
building high pressure ridge over the northern gulf of mexico is
expected to steer rina westward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
As the ridge slides eastward the hurricane should turn
northwestward...then northward in 2 to 3 days. After that...the
track guidance becomes quite divergent with the gfdl and hwrf
taking the cyclone northeastward...and the gfs showing an
eastward or east-southeastward motion. For now...the nhc forecast
remains between these two extremes and shows a slow east-northeast
motion near the end of the period.

Given the extremely large spread in the guidance...and the poor run
to run consistency...there is much lower than normal confidence in
the long-range track forecast of rina.
November12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #39 (permalink)
Travel Insurance Tester

 
Shammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Joisey Shore
Posts: 18,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryberg View Post
Another is what Roni noted that Dr Jeff noted: that it may in fact dissipate before it quite gets here.
He's not saying that anymore. Things are changing very rapidly and when he did say that earlier today, it was still just a tropical depression. You may not want to read what he's saying now.
Shammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #40 (permalink)
Travel Insurance Tester

 
Shammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Joisey Shore
Posts: 18,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryberg View Post
Major = cat 3, 4 or 5

So obviously non-major is cat 1 or 2

Edit: Not my classification, mind you, but the official and agreed upon one:
Steve, I don't really care about who's officially classifying the exact strength and determining what is and what isn't to be called "major". I guess I should have clarified - I wasn't talking in an official sense of the word, I more implying that if a CAT 2 storm was headed my way, I would consider it to be a major event.

And Dr. Jeff has this to say about this being "major" now:

The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday,Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday.On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.
Shammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #41 (permalink)
añejo
 
absoluteAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Latitude 20.6326 Longitude 87.0685
Posts: 14,557
I just read the 5pm update from the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center and it bears out what I said in my early post. Hurricane is heading in a North/Northwesterly direction currently. It is strenghtening rapidly and went from a trropical depression to a tropical storm to a hurricane in less than 24 hours.
absoluteAL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #42 (permalink)
way into it
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 249
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shammy View Post
Steve, I don't really care about who's officially classifying the exact strength and determining what is and what isn't to be called "major". I guess I should have clarified - I wasn't talking in an official sense of the word, I more implying that if a CAT 2 storm was headed my way, I would consider it to be a major event.

And Dr. Jeff has this to say about this being "major" now:

The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday,Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday.On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.
Which scenario would be worse for PDC......

If a hurricane makes landfall just East of PDC? Or just West of PDC?
Emosh73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #43 (permalink)
playa maya guy

 
ryberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Playa del Carmen
Posts: 29,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
I just read the 5pm update from the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center and it bears out what I said in my early post. Hurricane is heading in a North/Northwesterly direction currently. It is strenghtening rapidly and went from a trropical depression to a tropical storm to a hurricane in less than 24 hours.
Please, Al. This is not a time for exaggeration or inaccurate info. You said things that were not accurate, as has been demonstrated, and made the situation look considerably worse than it was. Even now what you said is still incorrect since, as has also been shown, NHC is saying Thursday night/Friday morning, not tomorrow night.

As bad as it may get -- and yes, I've been reading later updates! -- let's stick to what authorities are saying and not do things like jumping the gun on when it's due to be around Playa by 48+ hours. That helps no one. The reality may end up being bad enough as it is.

Thanks.
ryberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #44 (permalink)
añejo
 
Babaloo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Playa del Carmen
Posts: 29,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
I just read the 5pm update from the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center and it bears out what I said in my early post. Hurricane is heading in a North/Northwesterly direction currently. It is strenghtening rapidly and went from a trropical depression to a tropical storm to a hurricane in less than 24 hours.
You said in your earlier post that it would hit the Yucatan tomorrow night. Nowhere has it said that.
Babaloo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #45 (permalink)
playa maya guy

 
ryberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Playa del Carmen
Posts: 29,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emosh73 View Post
Which scenario would be worse for PDC......

If a hurricane makes landfall just East of PDC? Or just West of PDC?
Can't really do the latter. You mean north/south, perhaps?

Usually Cozumel acts as a bit of a buffer for Playa (thanks, Cozumeleños!), as for example it did with Wilma. If that helps.
ryberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:34 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.