Playa del Carmen, Mexico's virtual guidebook written by locals
 

Go Back   www.Playa.info > General discussion > General - Playa del Carmen
FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-22-2011   #1 (permalink)
añejo
 
absoluteAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Latitude 20.6326 Longitude 87.0685
Posts: 14,511
Hurricane Rina October 2011

Tropical weather system is developing in the western Caribbean (well south of Playa at this time) with a 70% chance of further development and a 60% chance of becoming a named storm..

Last edited by absoluteAL; 10-22-2011 at 03:42 PM..
absoluteAL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2011   #2 (permalink)
Travel Insurance Tester

 
Shammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Joisey Shore
Posts: 18,672
Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
Tropical weather system is developing in the western Caribbean (well south of Playa at this time) with a 70% chance of further development
and a 60% chance of becoming a named storm..
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
Shammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2011   #3 (permalink)
añejo
 
absoluteAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Latitude 20.6326 Longitude 87.0685
Posts: 14,511
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shammy View Post
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
Thanks for the update. I am headed to south Florida Wednesday and I don't want this "thing" following me there.
absoluteAL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2011   #4 (permalink)
beachaholic
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Glencoe IL.
Posts: 304
"Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry air-mass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs."

FROM JEFF MASTERS
Arnie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2011   #5 (permalink)
¡No mames güey!
 
roni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mérida, Yucatán
Posts: 74,799
97L is the one I am watching. I am thinking Dr. Jeff is right on 96L

We are flying into Cancun on Friday morning and going to Merida for 4 nights before taking a bus to Playa on November 1.

97L is way to far out in time to take any path predictions very seriously, IMO, but it bears watching
roni is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2011   #6 (permalink)
way into it
 
whitecat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Posts: 169
Send a message via Yahoo to whitecat
Have a good time in Luz de Yucatan. Love the place. I will be in Playa tomorrow and will post a first hand follow up soon.
whitecat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2011   #7 (permalink)
¡No mames güey!
 
roni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mérida, Yucatán
Posts: 74,799
Diversity of computer model outcomes

roni is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #8 (permalink)
life=playa
 
krazzy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 772
yuppp here comes Rina , doesnt look good
krazzy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #9 (permalink)
añejo
 
absoluteAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Latitude 20.6326 Longitude 87.0685
Posts: 14,511
Temps early this morning in the lower to mid 60 degree range. Cool for sure but seems to be warming up nicely.

Keeping a eye on tropical depression RINA has it is possibly heading this way. It is moving slowly which will hopefully enable me to fly out Wednesday morning to Florida. And if Rina develops and heads towards FL (slowly I hope), I fly back here Sunday morning - hopefully avoiding foul weather either way.
absoluteAL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #10 (permalink)
añejo
 
mrsr05's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: lawn guyland
Posts: 1,893
Quote:
Originally Posted by absoluteAL View Post
Temps early this morning in the lower to mid 60 degree range. Cool for sure but seems to be warming up nicely.

Keeping a eye on tropical depression RINA has it is possibly heading this way. It is moving slowly which will hopefully enable me to fly out Wednesday morning to Florida. And if Rina develops and heads towards FL (slowly I hope), I fly back here Sunday morning - hopefully avoiding foul weather either way.

al, good luck with your travels ... hope they are safe and uneventful...

also, please talk to the weather gods and make sure we have nice weather in march.... i figure since you have so much time, shouldnt be an issue
mrsr05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #11 (permalink)
añejo
 
Paw'boy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Adventure Port
Posts: 2,662
Quote:
Originally Posted by krazzy View Post
yuppp here comes Rina , doesnt look good
Looking at the Satellite flash, she does not appear to big, that could change, lets hope not so I don't have to deal with client storm prep!
Paw'boy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #12 (permalink)
¡No mames güey!
 
roni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mérida, Yucatán
Posts: 74,799
This is the first time a trip of ours has coincided with the possibility of tropical weather.

Looks like, with the current information, we hopefully can get into Cancun at 11:00 am on Friday and grab the bus to Merida, but things will probably change over the next couple of days.

Our concerns, of course, are minor compared to those of people who live there. Here is hoping that atmospheric conditions are favorable to all.
roni is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #13 (permalink)
way into it
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: NEW ORLEANS AREA
Posts: 183
Quote:
Originally Posted by krazzy View Post
yuppp here comes Rina , doesnt look good
Here in south louisiana it has been a very quiet hurricane season. So what am going to do; fly right on down to Mexico just in time for one. My luck. Good thing I have a lot of experience in Hurricane parties.
COOKIEINCOV is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #14 (permalink)
Travel Insurance Tester

 
Shammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Joisey Shore
Posts: 18,672
The latest on Rina:

Forecast for Rina
The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models. The completely opposite scenario is predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, which forecast Rina will stay just south of the high shear/dry air region, and attain major hurricane status. The official NHC forecast of a Category 1 Hurricane Rina late this week is a reasonable compromise between these extremes. The track forecast for Rina also presents difficulties. A west-northwest to northwest motion towards the Yucatan Peninsula is likely through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, but the models are increasingly suggesting that Rina will not be far enough north to get caught up in the trough, but instead will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. None of the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, or HWRF models are predicting that Rina's center will make it north of Cuba during the next five days. In any case, heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday.
Shammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2011   #15 (permalink)
añejo
 
snappysammy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 13,063
this one is too early to call at this time
but so far i ain't worried

stay tuned
snappysammy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:37 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.