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Old 11-08-2016   #1 (permalink)
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What If Trump Wins?

For the full timers in Playa/Tulum, what do you think the implications will be after a Trump victory? Short term and longer term?
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Old 11-09-2016   #2 (permalink)
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For the full timers in Playa/Tulum, what do you think the implications will be after a Trump victory? Short term and longer term?
Well..right now the peso is tanking. Historical lows. Good for those of us with US dollars but horrible for my Mexico friends.
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Old 11-09-2016   #3 (permalink)
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Well..right now the peso is tanking. Historical lows. Good for those of us with US dollars but horrible for my Mexico friends.
Babaloo, you have been living down there awhile right? Do you have any Mexican CD's or equivalent? Do they pay well?

Thank you.
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Old 11-09-2016   #4 (permalink)
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For the full timers in Playa/Tulum, what do you think the implications will be after a Trump victory? Short term and longer term?
the u.s. economy is gonna suffer, the inflation in the u.s. will go up, so will interest rates -
give it till next fall,
which will trigger inflation and rising interests down here.
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Old 11-09-2016   #5 (permalink)
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the u.s. economy is gonna suffer, the inflation in the u.s. will go up, so will interest rates -
give it till next fall,
which will trigger inflation and rising interests down here.
yes agreed old friend,,on the bright side our wine will be cheaper
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Old 11-09-2016   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by sanluisdavid View Post
Babaloo, you have been living down there awhile right? Do you have any Mexican CD's or equivalent? Do they pay well?

Thank you.
Hadn't the peso been on the decline before the election?
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Old 11-09-2016   #7 (permalink)
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Hadn't the peso been on the decline before the election?

Don't cloud the discussion with facts.
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Old 11-09-2016   #8 (permalink)
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Hadn't the peso been on the decline before the election?

When a currency drops 10%+ in real time based off of a current event, you can pretty safely assume there's a relationship.


The long term effects are obviously up in the air. If Trump pivots and becomes a voice of stability, you'll see the rate change one way. If he starts pushing his stated agenda, it will go the other way.
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Old 11-09-2016   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by sanluisdavid View Post
For the full timers in Playa/Tulum, what do you think the implications will be after a Trump victory? Short term and longer term?

Tourism is affected directly by the economy of the US, and Playa is a tourist town. It's too early to make that call. The markets view Trump as volatile, and markets don't like volatility. That doesn't mean that will trickle down to the average tourist, but it's the only indicator we have at the moment. (well, and the exchange rate)


As far as personally, I lived in the Middle East during the Bush era, and while I received the occasional comment about being an American, people are generally nice if you're not a dick. I imagine it won't be any different here. If Mexico suffers and you strut around with a "Make America Great" hat, you make get a bit of a hassle. But keep a low profile (like you should anyway), and be nice and I think there will be no problem.


I read some economists that foretasted a -3% effect on the Mexican economy with a Trump win. Bad economies can lead to crime, etc... but -3%, while not good for the people here, is certainly not "world ending".


If Trump drops an A-bomb on Iran, life will suck no matter where you live.

Last edited by DrewJones; 11-09-2016 at 11:50 AM..
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Old 11-09-2016   #10 (permalink)
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Hadn't the peso been on the decline before the election?
When we moved down in Jan, 2014, the dollar was worth about 13.4 pesos.

Today it is worth near 20 pesos. It has ranged from about 17 to about 20 over the past 6 months or so.
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Old 11-09-2016   #11 (permalink)
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the u.s. economy is gonna suffer, the inflation in the u.s. will go up, so will interest rates -
give it till next fall,
which will trigger inflation and rising interests down here.
Please tell us how the US economy will suffer under Trump.
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Old 11-09-2016   #12 (permalink)
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Please tell us how the US economy will suffer under Trump.
LMGTFY
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Old 11-09-2016   #13 (permalink)
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SHould we use the same response to all questions here? What is the best bar in Playa? Here...let me google that for you
Still awaiting an honest answer about the economy.


How'd those betting markets you stuck to work out for ya James? Pretty damn profitable for me at +650....and the right candidate winning.

Last edited by loomis41973; 11-09-2016 at 09:30 PM..
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Old 11-09-2016   #14 (permalink)
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Some likely outcomes:

Strengthened border security kills the coyotaje business. This currently involves over 1000 operations plus many mom-and-pop shops employing tens of thousands of people in Mexico. Those are generally not very nice people, some of them will make it to other places where lucrative illegal work awaits.

Similarly, migrants from Guatemala and other LatAm countries currently taking a left after entering Chiapas may take a right instead for the high GDP area of the riviera maya.

More people yet will come if Trump really forces stricter workplace and kills state / municipal don't-ask-don't-tell policies for undocumented workers.

Increased scrutiny for people entering the US from Mexico might make transfers in the already pretty disgusting points of entry (Houston, Miami) much worse yet.

I'm not going to forecast currency rates right now as there are too many moving parts, but actually I'd assume the peso will benefit, further hurting tourism.
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Old 11-09-2016   #15 (permalink)
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I hope they are not the same people who came up with the betting odds you once trusted.
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