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current NOAA links for Tropical Storms

NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while
the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about
midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next day or
two while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.9, -68.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 191447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized, and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 191447 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 68.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and the circulation looking less well defined. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000 ft. The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled. Thus, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. The initial motion is now 275/19. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only minor changes from the previous track. The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another 12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization should allow at best only slow strengthening. After that, the upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western Caribbean. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey should weaken as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96 h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. It should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next 12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly wave. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.9N 68.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) 1(34) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 15:26:20 GMT

Dr Jeff Masters Blog

Category 6?
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